Almost from its inception, the No Labels Party has been seen as a threat by the Democratic Party. The prospect of a third party that draws any votes at all from Democratic candidates raised the hackles of the party leadership.
In the current political context, drawing votes from Joe Biden in some crucial swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio keeps Democrats up at night. In fact, some Democrats are going to try to stop the No Labels Party at almost any cost.
So it's no surprise that New York Times columnist Thomas Edsall would raise the prospect of a certain Trump victory if No Labels is successful in getting on the ballot in almost every state.
"The fear in many quarters — from Republican consultants who are members of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project to Democrats of all ideological stripes — is that if the No Labels third-party campaign is carried out, it will help elect Trump," Edsall writes in the New York Times.
That very well may be true. It also may very well not be true. Edsall is speculating a worst-case scenario for Democrats. But what if No Labels puts up a candidate like New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu who has proven bipartisan support? Or former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan? It's possible that those Republicans on a No Labels ticket would hurt Trump as much as Biden.
Many Democrats think that any effort that potentially divides the presidential vote helps Trump.
“'No Labels,' Rep. Abigail Spanberger, Democrat of Virginia, declared, 'is wasting time, energy and money on a bizarre effort that confuses and divides voters and has one obvious outcome — re-electing Donald Trump as president,'" Edsall writes.
No Labels running a presidential candidate wouldn't "confuse voters." Everyone in the United States has a well-formed opinion of Donald Trump, and suggesting otherwise is ludicrous. Trump hatred is built into the electorate, and I suspect that there are very few voters who don't know whether they'd support or oppose Trump in 2024.
No Labels Party swears on a stack of Bibles that if it looks like it's going to elect Trump with the entry of a third-party candidate, it won't put a candidate forward.
Nancy Jacobson, a former Democratic fundraiser and wife of Mark Penn, a former friend of Hillary and Bill Clinton, wouldn't do anything to help Trump, she says.
Last summer, Jacobson told NBC that the group would abandon its plans to run an independent presidential ticket if she and others in the organization became convinced that such a bid would help Trump.
“As a Democrat? Categorically, that will not happen,” Jacobson said. “This effort will never — we’ll pull it down.” She added: “We will not spoil for either side. The only reason to do this is to win.”
Other Democrats say, "Follow the money." Most of the large donors to No Labels are Republicans like Harlan Crowe, Clarence Thomas's friend and benefactor. But more than money, it's the constituencies who are attracted to the No Labels Party that are giving Democratic strategists a heart attack.
Equally important, NBC also found that the strongest appeal of third-party candidates is among constituencies Biden must carry, including voters pollsters call persuadable; low-income, working-class and middle-class voters of color; and voters who said they “somewhat” disapproved of Biden.
In my opinion, no third-party candidate has a chance of winning the presidency in 2024. No matter who is on the ballot for the No Labels Party, the race will come down to the Republicans and Democrats. And if No Labels Party keeps its word, it's not going to run a candidate for president at all. Not only will a No Labels Party candidate have no chance of winning, but it's more than possible that its candidate would help Trump.
Hope springs eternal... except when it comes to third-party presidential candidates.
