West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin announced on Thursday that he would not run for re-election in 2024. The political headwinds in West Virginia are fierce for the Democrat, but Manchin is the biggest vote-getter in the history of the state, winning elections for state legislator, secretary of state, governor, and U.S. senator over the last 42 years.
It would be foolish to think he couldn't have won. But Manchin's stated reasons for declining a run for the Senate give us a hint of what he may do next. He wrote an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal all but announcing a third party run for president.
"After months of deliberation and long conversations with family, I believe I have accomplished what I set out to do for West Virginia. I have made one of the toughest decisions of my life and decided that I won’t run for re-election to the Senate. I will finish my term while traveling the country and speaking out to see if there is interest in building a movement to mobilize the middle, find common ground and bring Americans together."
Some Manchin confidants expect him to tour the country and flirt with a White House bid for a few months. For now, they aren't convinced he'll actually pull the trigger, according to people familiar with the matter.
But predicting Manchin's political moves during the last two years has been difficult. The wily West Virginian frequently has surprised his own party and the GOP.
At a Townhall last summer with former Republican Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, Manchin also teased a run for president on the No Labels Party.
“It is clear that most Americans are exceedingly frustrated by the growing divide in our political parties and toxic political rhetoric from our elected leaders,” Manchin said in a statement. “Our political discourse is lacking engaged debates around common sense solutions to solve the pressing issues facing our nation. I am looking forward to modeling this type of conversation with my good friend, Gov. Huntsman, and the No Labels community."
No Labels continues to insist they won't put a candidate on the ballot unless 1) they think he can win; and 2) by doing so, they elect Donald Trump.
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But we've seen promises like this wilt in the heat of passion and ambition. A promise from No Labels not to put up a candidate unless they can win is frangible in the game of power politics. They will run a candidate based on the exigencies of power and no other reason.
But this moment in the nation’s history is so filled with peril and political dysfunction that I want to work not only for my beloved West Virginia but for all Americans. Working together, I want to eliminate what is standing in the way of so many obvious and popular solutions. While the Democratic and Republican parties increasingly cater to the extremes, most Americans are moderate, levelheaded folks, and they are plain worn out.
We need to reaffirm that country should always come before party, but there are real structural issues to get there. Today, the incentives in politics reward bad behavior and demand party purity at the expense of problem-solving. Too much money flows to too few candidates, who stay so long in their offices they are no longer responsive to the people. We have primaries that limit who can participate and elections that are almost never competitive anymore. Democracy is supposed to give the people a voice, but Citizens United v. FEC, toxic gerrymandering, closed primaries and the lack of term limits are silencing that voice. It’s time to give power to more people and hold our elected officials more accountable.
That message would probably resonate. At least, with people who don't vote. Americans have been saying they want "civility" and "comity" for 20 years and yet, they keep electing bomb throwers and incendiaries.
It's how the game is being played today. And Manchin can't change it.
