House Republicans are girding their loins in anticipation of a battle royale to claim the speakership of the House.
Currently, the man expected to get the most votes is the GOP minority leader, Rep. Kevin McCarthy. But dang it all, McCarthy is thought by some to be a squish. What’s needed, these conservatives believe, is a he-man Republican — someone who will snarl, bite, claw, and put those commie Democrats in their place.
Rep. Andy Biggs has stepped forward to offer himself as a better candidate than McCarthy and has taken a blood oath to keep McCarthy from winning.
“I’m not bluffing,” Biggs told CNN on Thursday when asked if he would drop out.
So the battle lines are drawn — the McCarthy traditional conservatives vs. the firebrand, take-no-prisoners conservatives.
This will not end well.
As it stands now, McCarthy does not have the 218 votes to win on the first ballot of the election for speaker, which will be held on January 3, 2023. At least five Republicans have gone on record opposing him–and since the GOP only has a four-seat majority, Mr. McCarthy’s Irish luck has run out.
In addition, there are another seven Republicans who are looking for an alternative to McCarthy. Whether they would hold their noses and vote for the current minority leader is unknown, but they’ve made it clear they would prefer someone else for speaker.
The one possibility that could save McCarthy would be to get those five conservatives to vote “present” when it’s time to elect a speaker. Since the rule is a majority of members voting getting to elect a speaker if five members vote “present,” that would mean it would be necessary for the winner to get a majority of 435 minus 5 members, or 430. McCarthy would only need 216 votes for a majority voting.
What he would have to give up for those five members to vote “present” is another story.
So unless there’s a timely intervention from the gods, there will likely be at least two ballots and probably more to elect a new speaker. A multiple-ballot speaker election hasn’t happened since 1923, and the chances of the entire business getting out of hand and becoming extremely messy are growing every day.
But in the case of a doomsday scenario – where neither McCarthy nor Biggs can get 218 votes on January 3 and neither drops out – some pro-McCarthy Republicans are signaling support for a different approach. Some said they would be willing to work with Democrats to find a moderate Republican who can get the 218 votes to clinch the gavel – a long-shot idea that underscores the uncertainty looming over the speaker’s race.
“Our initial plan is vote for Kevin and let him fight this out repeatedly. … But if they think they’re going to use this to infinity to drive him out, well, we’re not going to bend to their will,” said Rep. Don Bacon, a Nebraska Republican.
“If a small group refuses to play ball and be part of the team, then we’ll work across the aisle to find an agreeable Republican,” Bacon told CNN. “But I hope we don’t get there.”
“Work with Democrats”? Yeah, that oughta go over really well with the MAGA crowd.
Obviously, that’s a “doomsday scenario.” The point is, Republicans can’t waste a whole lot of time messing around with answering the question of who will get to bang the gavel. There are too many critical votes coming up soon after the new Congress is seated.
Will an instinct for self-preservation prevent Republicans from self-immolating before they even take control of the House? Stay tuned.
