In 2010, Republicans developed a long-term plan to dominate state legislatures through redistricting. They had the perfect Democratic president to implement such a plan. Much to the chagrin of national Democrats, Barack Obama was completely uninterested in building the Democratic Party at the local and state level. And Democrats paid dearly for that short-sightedness.
By 2018, Republicans had control of 67 legislative chambers across the country, while the Democrats controlled 32. The significance of those numbers should not be downplayed. Republicans were able to push a conservative agenda in states where they had majorities in the legislature as well as a Republican governor. Cultural issues, education issues — GOP control of many state legislatures allowed conservatives to bring to the fore issues like abortion and critical race theory while curbing the excesses of previous Democratic administrations.
But 2022 was different. Although Republicans will still control the vast majority of state legislatures, for the first time since 1934, the party in power will not have lost a single legislative chamber in the midterms if the Democrats hold on in Nevada. Republicans will still control nearly 60 state legislative chambers, but some of the losses are shocking.
State of play: Democrats defended their state-level majorities in Massachusetts and Maryland and won governor seats left open after Republican retirements, securing a “trifecta” in both states. They also kept the Maine legislature, the New Mexico and Colorado state Houses, and secured a supermajority in both chambers in Vermont (which has a GOP governor).
In Michigan, Democrats flipped the House and Senate to take complete control of the state government for the first time in 40 years. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer won re-election by double-digits, vaulting the rising Democratic star into the national spotlight.
In Minnesota, Democrats also secured a trifecta after taking the state Senate.
In Wisconsin, Democrats denied Republicans a supermajority that would have allowed them to override Gov. Tony Evers’ veto — the only thing standing in the way of a statewide abortion ban.
How’d they do it? There were massive infusions of cash in the last few weeks of the election while the Democrats used abortion to leverage support across the board.
Two groups, The States Project and the National Democratic Redistricting Committee (NDRC), poured millions into state races in the final four weeks of the election. They targeted races with thin margins in Arizona, Colorado, New Hampshire, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Forward Majority, a Democratic super PAC focused on the states, invested over $20 million this cycle targeting 25 seats in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona.
“We’re clawing our way back to power after 50 years of investment for Republicans and so much neglect for so long by the Democratic Party,” said Forward Majority’s president Vicky Hausman.
The only real disappointment at the state level for Republicans was Michigan, but the election was a warning to the national GOP that Democrats have now come to play in state and local races. We can expect these down-ballot contests to be more competitive going forward — and more expensive.
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