Historically, voters will begin to “break” toward one candidate or the other in the last 10 days of the campaign. We saw that shift in 2016 manifest itself the last weekend of the race as voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania moved decisively toward Donald Trump.
It’s four years later but we may be seeing a similar shift now. Joe Biden has lost ground with several key voting groups in the latest IDB poll, while Trump’s support is surging in others. The combination is narrowing the race to a lead for Biden of about 5 points.
Perhaps more significantly, Donald Trump has surpassed the 46.1 percent of national support he received in 2016. It’s his highest level of support he’s ever gotten in the 2020 race.
The latest IBD/TIPP 2020 Presidential Election Tracking Poll suggests a shift in the race toward Trump after Biden’s lead had stabilized near 7 points over the prior three days following the final debate. Trump had climbed within 2.3 points on Oct. 20. Biden’s widest lead, 8.6 points, came on Oct. 13.
Trump’s 46.3% support is a new high-water mark in the IBD/TIPP presidential poll, topping his 46.1% vote share in 2016. Biden’s support slipped one point from 51.7% a day earlier. However, Biden remains 2.5 points ahead of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 vote share.
Many analysts believe that if Donald Trump is within 4 points of Joe Biden, he has a good shot of winning re-election in the Electoral College.
Where is Trump’s surge coming from?
Today’s presidential poll suggests Trump has his biggest lead yet among seniors and his smallest deficit among women. Meanwhile, the IBD/TIPP Biden vs. Trump poll suggests the Democrat’s lead among independents now matches its prior low.
However, in each of the past three days, the IBD/TIPP presidential poll has found Biden apparently erasing his deficit among men. Trump carried men by 11 points in 2016. Biden actually led by a sliver among men in Monday’s poll. The two are tied at 48% in today’s Biden vs. Trump poll.
Meanwhile, the presidential poll update suggests Biden’s lead among women has fallen to 8 points, 53%-45%. The prior low since the IBD/TIPP Biden vs. Trump poll launched on Oct. 12 had been 12 points. Trump lost to Clinton among women voters by a 15-point margin in 2016.
Trump has 95 percent support among voters who cast their ballots for him in 2016. But among voters who did not vote in 2016, he trails Biden by a significant margin, 58-24.
Another problem area for Trump is suburban voters. Formerly a GOP stronghold, the nation’s suburbs have been trending bluer in recent national elections. Biden currently leads in the suburbs 53.5 to 44. Trump won suburbia by 50-45 in 2016. Trump needs to narrow that gap if he hopes to win. Suburban voters make up half the total vote.
Biden appears to believe he has the election wrapped up as he has scheduled few appearances for the last week of the campaign. His overconfidence may yet be his undoing.