A friend Skyped to say that Intrade’s estimate that Scott Walker will win in Wisconsin has fallen from a recent high of 95% to just over 87%. One possible reasons for the decline are the pre-emptive claims by the Democratic Party that Governor Walker has cheated even before the voting began. Perhaps another factor are reports that Democrats are busing in supporters from out of state to vote in Wisconsin.
None of these is necessarily true, but you can see how it can shift the odds on Intrade. The bettors may not take these reports as indicators that Walker will cheat, but rather as expressions of intent from the opposing party.
The battle for the narrative is well underway. Think Progress writes “Madison City Clerk tells me turnout is on pace to hit 119% in Madison, adding ‘That would be unprecedented.'”” The next thing you know the Republicans will be accused of getting voters to rise from the dead.
Who knows, maybe it’s true?
But if the situation is in doubt, it is not foregone. The chief indicator of how uncertain things are was the absence of Barack Obama from the recall campaign. He’s not sure how things will turn out and is therefore hedging his political bets so as to be in a position to distance himself from a defeat while being near enough to claim the credit for Scott Walker recall. That probably depends on how things play out on the ground and at this moment that outcome is unclear.
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