Fatalism Before Armageddon

The big difference between the Cuban Missile Crisis and the current possible Russian use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine is that the former had two players in the game while the latter has multiple independent actors involved. A negotiated settlement of the conflict, if one is even possible — even mootable — involves satisfying multiple parties, particularly Eastern and Western Europe, plus Ukraine in addition to Moscow and Washington. The war is not for the White House to stop. Kyiv and factions in Moscow have a say in it.

Biden does not play so nearly as central a role as JFK, which may explain why he behaves like a bystander. CNN notes: “It’s striking for the President to speak so candidly and invoke Armageddon, particularly at a fundraiser, while his aides from the National Security Council to the State Department to the Pentagon have spoken in much more measured terms.”

The cracks between Ukraine and its Western supporters may widen as the war progresses. This is happening between Putin and his supporters too as costs and risks apply differential strains. If we follow the logic of Putin, the initial Western provocation was surviving the collapse of the USSR itself — and prospering while Russia languished. The psychological contrast is that the Cuban Missile Crisis was between two undisputed superpowers in their prime vying for the domination of the world, while the present crisis involves a has-been loser whose girlfriend is leaving him. Mainline deterrence theory didn’t anticipate the murder-suicide scenario.

To sum up: the present crisis is unstable, and no one is in total control. To an uncomfortable degree, the world is in the hands of luck. We really don’t know how it ends. Yet not long ago, the experts predicted we were all going to be transhumans. What happened to our Ted Talk future?

In writing Homo Deus Prof. Harari has done his best to rely on the most up to date sources and the most accurate facts available. … Over the past century, humankind has managed to do the impossible and rein in famine, plague and war. … Humans conquered the world thanks to their unique ability to believe in collective myths about gods, money, equality and freedom – as described in Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind. In Homo Deus, Prof. Harari looks to the future and explores how global power might shift, as the principal force of evolution – natural selection – is replaced by intelligent design.

The threat of Armageddon means back to history I guess, where we see what happens. Homo Deus. Now, where have we heard that term before?

Books: The Storm Before the Calm: America’s discord, the coming crisis of the 2020s, and the triumph beyond by George Friedman. Friedman’s analysis covers the size and scope of the federal government, the future of marriage and the social contract, shifts in corporate structures, and new cultural trends based on longer life expectancies. The result is a riveting account of current circumstances and the political upheavals that will pave the way for a new era of American prosperity and power.