Doug Jones is the newest senator from the state of Alabama. Yeah, I admit, I didn’t believe that was going to be the case. Yet Roy Moore wasn’t a great candidate, as it turns out.
While the Left is understandably ecstatic, it would behoove them to keep a little something in reserve. Reading too much into Moore’s defeat would be idiotic — but they’re doing it anyway:
Six months ago, Democrats were cautious in their optimism. They talked a lot about a strong 2018 that might chip away at the GOP’s majority in Congress.
But after winning a pair of governor’s races, more than a dozen state legislative contests, and a shock Senate seat in a deep red state over the last month, they are no longer holding back.
“Republicans are going to need to appreciate this wasn’t all about Roy Moore and sexual assault,” said JB Poersch, president of the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC. “This is a bigger issue.”
Party leaders are eagerly anticipating the 2018 midterm elections in the aftermath of Democrat Doug Jones’ stunning upset victory in Alabama, convinced they can now win outright majorities in the House and Senate in addition to a fleet of marquee gubernatorial races. To them, the victory in Alabama was the culmination of victories last month in Virginia and New Jersey, where the party swept to big wins in both gubernatorial and state legislative races.
Poersch is being ridiculous here, pushing a narrative he knows is not true.
First, let’s look at those gubernatorial wins. New Jersey is one of the most liberal states in the nation. Though Chris Christie was the governor there, it’s still a blue state that Hillary Clinton won by 14 points. It’s hardly surprising that it went blue this time around.
Virginia is a battleground state lately, and mostly because of its deep-blue, politically engaged D.C. commuters. This makes Virginia nothing like most of the South. Democrats got a boost from the post-Charlottesville rhetoric, sure, but they got more help from Ed Gillespie being an establishment candidate who was as exciting as a sack of potatoes. Hillary took Virginia by almost 5.5 points.
Alabama is different, and here we see just how wrong Mr. Poersch is. Everyone knows that, yes, it really was all about Roy Moore.
Moore was a terrible candidate from the start. His history alone made him a difficult candidate, one guaranteed to stir the pot enough that out-of-state Democrats would flood his opponent with cash. But Moore still likely wins big in the heavily red state of Alabama without the sexual misconduct allegations.
The Washington Post knew the allegations would be scrutinized to hell and back, so they did their homework. They offered more named sourcing than most MSM news has offered lately, making the allegations very difficult to ignore.
Don’t get me wrong, plenty thought they were lies. Plenty of people are convinced the liberal media was making stuff up, because the liberal media makes stuff up. So they stuck by Moore.
But a lot of voters didn’t. A lot of them looked at a candidate they already weren’t thrilled with, added in the allegations, and stayed home. GOP turnout dropped dramatically.
Democrats are thrilled with this win, and I get that. Trump trounced Hillary in Alabama, winning by over 27 points. Yet Democrats would have us believe that Alabama is suddenly and truly a battleground state now?
Trump’s approval rating is below 50 percent in the state, but that doesn’t mean Alabama is in the market for a progressive. That same poll showed that a whopping 45 percent of voters factored the allegations into their decision — implying that they all believed them. The margin of victory in the race was only one and a half points. That’s it.
When 45 percent of voters claim the allegations had an impact, Poersch’s claim — which is now being echoed by many Democrats — is immediately rendered absurd. No allegations, and it’s entirely likely that Moore stomps Jones by 20 points.
Late last year and earlier this year, every loss suffered by the Democrats was framed as proof they were gaining ground. Here, we have a handful of races in blue areas and a stroke of luck in a deep red one being embraced as proof of a Blue Wave.
I don’t think any Democrat really believes Alabama is turning blue. I just think they’re shameless enough to say it.