Even if people aren’t consistently voting their preferences at the ballot box, they are absolutely voting for them with their feet. Net migration to Florida is up. And while it may have started with people fleeing COVID tyranny, it appears the combined set of policies enshrined in law under Gov. Ron DeSantis is far more popular than the media or Democrats want Americans to know.
In the most recent Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, respondents were asked if they wanted to live in a state where legislation cut taxes, encouraged public charter schools, banned gender transition surgery for kids under 18, and restricted most abortions after six weeks. Nearly two-thirds, 64%, of respondents said yes. That included 82% of self-identified Republicans and 63% of independents. Even 48% of Democrats said yes.
Next, they were asked if they would want to live in a state that looks much more like New York and California. One where taxes were increasing, minors were allowed to get gender surgery without a parent’s permission, and illegal immigration was encouraged. Also, one where abortions are permitted for up to nine months, gun ownership has more restrictions, and felons are allowed to vote. The answer for 66% of those polled was a resounding no.
Hilariously, 52% of Democrat respondents said no. It’s like they don’t understand the policy platform of their own party. California and New York are considered model blue states. But only about one-third of Americans would want to live in one with the legislative priorities of those states. More than two-thirds of independent voters said that was not a state they would like to live in.
Harvard CAPS / Harris also polled many of the issues in the roll-up question individually. It holds some real lessons on cultural issues ahead of 2024, if Republican candidates look at the details. For example, while 53% opposed the six-week abortion ban, 64% opposed a law that allow the procedure up until birth. More people oppose the Democrat position, including 65% of independents and 48% of Democrat voters.
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When coupled with other issues in the hypothetical state, 17% of voters who opposed the six-week ban did not care enough to turn down lower taxes, school choice, and protecting kids from genital mutilation. So while Democrats work feverishly to whip their single, college-educated female voters into a frenzy over abortion rights, Republicans need to find the voters who care more about other issues and get them to the polls.
Next, the coalition of parents that put Glenn Youngkin in the Virginia Governor’s Mansion looks durable. In the poll, 82% of respondents favor legislation strengthening parental rights over their children. This included more than three-quarters of participants from every political affiliation. Seventy-seven percent oppose laws allowing minors to access puberty blockers and transition surgery without parental consent. Almost three-quarters also support encouraging charter schools. As a proxy for school choice, this finding is consistent in poll after poll.
If the GOP can’t take that kind of agreement on critical issues for families and parents and run with it, they deserve to lose. The Biden administration is doing everything possible to push in the opposite direction. Tape of HHS Secretary Xavier Baccera confirming to Congress that he would cut hospital funding in states that prohibit the procedures should be spliced with his assistant Dr. “Rachel” Levine saying that changing kids’ genders will soon be fully embraced. Then add President Biden saying, “These are our kids. These are our neighbors. Not somebody else’s kids; they’re all our kids. And our children are the kite strings that hold our national ambitions aloft,” at a Pride event. Then put in ads non-stop from now until Election Day. This is not even hard.
Finally, immigration is another winning issue. Sixty-eight percent of voters think their state should discourage the settling of illegal immigrants, and 63% oppose them getting driver’s licenses. Perhaps a “stunt” like sending a bus of migrants to Martha’s Vineyard or a charter plane of the willing to California is precisely what two-thirds of voters are looking for. Endless border footage, especially with migrants saying Joe Biden told them to come, should also play on endless loops between now and November 2024.
There is very little bad news in the poll for Republicans if they are willing to embrace the cultural issues Americans care about. Almost two-thirds believe the country and the economy are on the wrong track, and 75% believe the economy is in a recession or will be in the next year. The candidate that takes on the cultural issues, defies the media pressure to cave on issues like abortion, and makes the race a referendum on Democrat policy positions should run away with their race.
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