The ingredients are all there. Voter dissatisfaction with the two major parties has never been so high. Dissatisfaction with the current front runners for president is also at an all-time high. And the state of the nation is perilously close to revolution.
Might this be the opening a third party is looking for? Robert F. Kennedy thinks so. He’s seriously entertaining a run for president as some kind of independent. Kennedy’s name is still magic in several key states, and there are enough voters who remember his father, Robert Kennedy, and two uncles, Sen. Ted Kennedy and President John Kennedy, to make trouble for Democrats across the country.
Related: RFK Jr. to Run as an Independent
Elsewhere, the No Labels Party is preparing to field a presidential candidate for the first time. This has scared the Democrats, who believe the No Labels Party is a plot to draw votes from Biden.
Accordingly, the word went out to state and local Democratic Parties; stop No Labels from appearing on the ballot in your state.
No Labels sent a letter to Democratic state party chairs asking them to cease and desist their efforts to prevent No Labels from appearing on the state ballot, citing Joe Biden’s statement to Pro Publica that he recognized No Label’s “democratic right” to run candidates.
“He has a democratic right to do it. There’s no reason not to do that,” Biden told ProPublica in an interview. “Now, it’s going to help the other guy, and he knows. That’s a political decision he’s making that I obviously think is a mistake. But he has a right to do that.”
It would depend on who No Labels runs for president as far as whether it would “help the other guy.” It would also depend on whether No Labels could get on enough state ballots to impact the race.
The Democrats certainly understand the danger. Two Democratic-aligned groups — The Third Way and the Lincoln Project — are fighting like hell to keep No Labels off the ballot.
Many Democrats and other Trump critics say No Labels can’t win but could siphon enough votes to cost Biden the election.
Biden’s razor-thin Electoral College victory in 2020 depended on support from anti-Trump Republicans and right-leaning conservatives. He’ll need a similar coalition to win reelection, and even a small number of defections to No Labels or another third party could be enough to tip battleground states in Trump’s direction.
Possible No Labels candidates who have run as Republicans in the past are Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger — neither of whom excites anyone on the right. Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin is a possibility, but many people see him as another candidate from the gerontocracy.
Chris Christie has also been mentioned as a possible No Labels candidate. Some other current presidential candidates like Nikki Haley would be hard to recruit since running on a third-party ticket is tantamount to throwing away your political career as a Republican.
Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman has been mentioned but he, too, draws little interest on the right. And No Labels says they won’t run a candidate unless they see a clear path to victory.
That’s not going to convince Democrats that No Labels isn’t a secret cabal of Republicans looking to assist Donald Trump in the presidential election. And No Labels objects to the interference.
The DNC is part of a broader and more organized campaign to subvert No Labels’ ballot access efforts that are on the razor’s edge of violating federal law. Engaging in tactics such as these is a blatant violation of the basic constitutional rights that No Labels and its supporters enjoy under the First Amendment rights of freedom of association and freedom of speech.
No Labels will take whatever steps are necessary to protect the rights of Americans.
The odds against No Labels are pretty stiff. If the past holds true, a third-party player will peak in polls at about 15-20% of the vote and then fade the closer we get to election day, ending up with 5% or less. There’s no reason to believe 2024 will be any different.
Except that 2024 is very different, and No Labels is a true wildcard.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member