If Gaetz Is Successful in Booting McCarthy, Who Would Take His Place?

As expected, Rep. Matt Gaetz filed a “motion to vacate” the speaker’s chair in the House on Monday evening, setting in motion a series of events that could see Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy removed from office.

“I have enough Republicans where at this point next week, one of two things will happen: Kevin McCarthy won’t be the speaker of the House or he’ll be the speaker of the House working at the pleasure of the Democrats,” Gaetz told reporters afterward outside the Capitol.

Gaetz means that because there are probably going to be more than five Republicans who vote for McCarthy’s ouster, the speaker is going to need Democratic votes — or abstentions — to keep his job.

Here are the members who have said they’ll vote to oust McCarthy.

• Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.)
• Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.)
• Rep. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.)
• Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.)

There are several other Republican members who have said they’re still thinking about it. No doubt, these members are holding back, seeing what both sides can offer them. This will give McCarthy time to strongarm several of these members or entice them with perks. The speaker’s powers are great, and the old adage, “If you strike at the king, you must kill him,” holds true in this case.

But the big question is, what will the Democrats do? Traditionally, the opposition party votes for their floor leader for speaker, In this case, it’s Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).

Jeffries is in a unique position. He could help elect McCarthy by allowing some Democrats to vote for the speaker — an unprecedented collaboration with unknown consequences. Jeffries could also allow some of his members to be absent or vote “present” thus lowering the threshold that McCarthy would need to win a majority of the House.

It goes without saying that any Democrat who voted for McCarthy for speaker or voted “present” instead of Jeffries would incur the wrath of the far left.

McCarthy also has a couple of parliamentary tricks up his sleeve. Instead of voting on the motion to vacate, he could call for a vote to “table the motion,” effectively killing it. The speaker could also try to refer the matter to a committee — a gambit even less likely to succeed.

So it’s likely that McCarthy will be forced to run for speaker again. It took 15 votes in January to elect him. How many this time?

Politico:

McCarthy allies are marshaling forces inside and outside the Capitol, trying to isolate Gaetz and accuse him of working with Democrats to remove the speaker. “Matt Gaetz is a charlatan,” tweeted Rep. Larry Bucshon (R-Ind.), in one example of a rank-and-file Republican lashing out. They’re also hoping to exploit cracks inside of the hard-right bloc, with plenty of members of the House Freedom Caucus — such as Rep. Debbie Lesko (Ariz.) — publicly expressing exasperation with Gaetz’s antics.

Conservative talk show host Mark Levin is also on a rampage against Gaetz — blaming his faction, not McCarthy, for the spending punt: “They rant and rave without a plan and without a real objective and now we get this 45 day CR. THEY did this.”

McCarthy also has a couple of things going for him. First and foremost, Gaetz has burned a lot of bridges with his colleagues in going after McCarthy and blowing up several Republican plans to keep the government from shutting down. True, those plans would have had zero chance of passage in the Senate. But Gaetz wasn’t interested in anything except his power grab for the speakership.

He can’t win, of course. He’s made far too many enemies in his own party. But who else could be speaker?

McCarthy’s ally, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.), has been mentioned as a replacement for McCarthy since the beginning of the year. Scalise would probably not seek the job on his own, but if the House GOP can’t re-elect McCarthy, he may give an indication that he’s willing to serve.

The same goes for Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), chairman of the powerful House Oversight Committee. Jordan is less an ally of McCarthy but has continuously said he much prefers chairing the Oversight Committee. He ran against McCarthy for speaker in 2019 and got clobbered 159-43.

McCarthy is the only member with enough support to come close to winning the speakership. There may be a dozen members who wouldn’t vote for McCarthy — if there was a viable alternative. Since there really doesn’t appear that any other GOP member of stature is willing to challenge McCarthy, it’s very likely that after several votes, McCarthy will be re-elected.