The Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in Ukraine was captured by the Russians in the first days of the war. Ever since then, the threat of sabotage, an accident, or the deliberate destruction of safety devices that would lead to a catastrophic accident has always been present.
The hard-pressed International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors at Zaporizhzhya have been trying to keep the plant from melting down for more than a year. Ukrainians who operate the plant have been held at gunpoint as the plant’s infrastructure slowly deteriorates.
The six reactors at the plant have been shut down since last summer, but the plant still needs electricity to power the safety systems necessary to prevent damage to the reactors and hence a serious accident.
The problem for both the IAEA and us is that it’s impossible to say for sure which side is telling the truth about the plant’s condition. Ukraine says the plant is close to having an accident. The Russians say that’s simply not true. Independent nuclear experts side with Russia in this argument. Speculation that Zaporizhzhya might see a meltdown like Chernobyl or an accident like Fukushima is unfounded, say many experts.
First of all, Ukraine is pushing the narrative that an accident at Zaporizhzhya would be similar to the one that occurred at Chernobyl. That’s simply not true because Chernobyl had literally no containment and its graphite moderators were outdated and operated by clowns.
Nor would an accident at Zaporizhzhya resemble the Fukushima accident that occurred after an earthquake. The Fukushima reactors were running right up to the earthquake, while the Ukrainian complex has been shut down for months.
Lawyers, Guns, and Money notes that “additionally, all control was lost at Fukushima. There are measures the ZNPP operators can take to mitigate such an accident.”
But now both sides are claiming that the enemy will attempt to sabotage the plant, causing a catastrophic accident.
Ukrainian warnings are becoming more urgent that the Russians plan an incident at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. The warnings have been coming for about a week. The latest is that explosives have been rigged on top of two of the reactor buildings to simulate Ukrainian shelling of the plant. Other accusations are that the plant or the pond that holds the cooling water for the plant are mined.
The Russians are countering with accusations of their own.
Rafael Mariano Grossi, the Director General of the IAEA, has visited the plant recently, and two IAEA staff have been stationed at the plant. He says that the parts of the plant he has seen are not mined, but he has not seen everything he wants to see. He plans to go back in the near future.
“With military tension and activities increasing in the region where this major nuclear power plant is located, our experts must be able to verify the facts on the ground. Their independent and objective reporting would help clarify the current situation at the site, which is crucial at a time like this with unconfirmed allegations and counter allegations,” Grossi said in a statement.
As usual, Russia is blocking access by IAEA inspectors to confirm that there are no explosives. Ukraine has accused Russia of mining the reactors as well as the cooling pond, but until inspectors can physically inspect the plant, Ukraine is going to have to take Moscow’s word for it.
The Institute for the Study of War believes that Moscow wouldn’t dare cause an accident at Zaporizhzhya for the simple reason it would be impossible to control the nuclear fallout that would almost certainly spread over Russia as well as Ukraine.
The Institute for the Study of War said in an analysis published Tuesday that while each has escalated its rhetoric, it was “unlikely” that Moscow would create a nuclear disaster.
The institute said that provocative statements — and possibly provocative acts — are intended as propaganda to accuse Ukraine of irresponsible behavior near the plant ahead of an upcoming NATO leaders’ summit.
The real danger at Zaporizhzhya is accidental shelling by one side or the other or an accident precipitated by poor maintenance. Neither side is crazy enough to deliberately blow up a nuclear plant where fallout would spread over a large area.
Not yet, anyway.
