If Republicans are going to retake the Senate in 2024, a good place to start would be Montana and West Virginia. Those deep-red states are represented by Democrats Jon Tester and Joe Manchin respectively. And voters in those states have entirely opposite views of their incumbent Democrats.
Montana’s Jon Tester is one of the most popular Senators — Democratic or Republican — in the United States. He has a sky-high 58% approval rating, and of the 59% of Montana voters who dislike Joe Biden, 42% still support Tester.
Joe Manchin of West Virginia isn’t as lucky — or popular. In fact, Manchin is less popular with Democrats than his potential rival, Gov. Jim Justice. Justice commands support from 52% of Democrats as opposed to Manchin’s 49%.
Manchin hasn’t decided to run for re-election. And these numbers may very well dissuade him from making the effort.
Almost every voter who approves of Manchin’s job performance (86%) gave a thumbs up to Justice, and he boasts stronger backing from West Virginians of all political stripes, including among Democrats (52% to 49%) and independents (63% to 35%).
It wasn’t always like this for Manchin, who was one of America’s most popular senators when he was tapping the brakes on Biden’s “Build Back Better” policy agenda. It sparked a large coalitional shift that earned him high marks with Republicans and independents, but that all evaporated when he gave his decisive support to the Inflation Reduction Act in July.
Manchin has yet to announce re-election plans, sparking speculation among some that the 75-year-old might not run. But Jonathan Kott, a former aide who’s close to the Democratic senator, noted that Manchin wasn’t quick to launch a bid when he was last on the ballot in 2018 either.
As for Tester, he’s in it to win it, and his popularity has dissuaded some Republicans that 2024 isn’t their year.
When Tester announced his plans to run for re-election in February, his campaign highlighted his support among a “broad coalition of Montanans.” Tester has honed an outsider image despite his time in Washington, placing distance between himself and the national Democratic Party.
“That’s how you run in Montana: You run essentially by yourself and are authentic,” said Bill Lombardi, Tester’s former Senate office state director.
Tester boasts a notable distinction from other vulnerable incumbent Democrats: A good chunk of the people who disapprove of Biden’s job performance approve of his.
Republicans will be looking at a target-rich environment in 2024 with several Democrats seriously underwater.
Tester has an approval rating of 42% among voters who disapprove of Biden in his state, with his disapproval rate being only 49%. Between Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV), Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Bob Casey (D-PA), Tim Kaine (D-VA), Jacky Rosen (D-NV), and Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), none of them have approval ratings above 34% among those voters, and only one, Casey, has a disapproval rating that is not a clear majority.
Much will depend on the quality of candidates Republicans can recruit to run against these vulnerable Democratic incumbents. The GOP’s track record in the previous three elections left much to be desired.
But if Republicans can attract Gov. Justice and some other popular figures with statewide name recognition, they have a golden opportunity to gain a solid majority in the Senate.
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