While the attention of the United States and most western countries is on Ukraine, another major threat has been growing in Iran and may now have become irreversible.
It’s not a new threat. Iran’s nuclear program has been watched as carefully as a closed, paranoid nation can be watched. But much of the work on Iran’s nuclear weapons program can’t be discovered via spy satellites or other national technical means like listening devices. So when a glimmer of light is shone on their nuclear program, it’s generally a cause for worry.
Colin Kahl, the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, told a House committee hearing on Wednesday that Iran was “about 12 days” from having the capability to build one nuclear bomb. The 12 days is the “breakout” time for an Iranian nuclear bomb — a time period that has declined steadily since the George W. Bush presidency, when the CIA tried to tell us that Iran didn’t have a nuclear bomb program.
“Because Iran’s nuclear progress since we left the JCPOA has been remarkable. Back in 2018, when the previous administration decided to leave the JCPOA, it would have taken Iran about 12 months to produce one bomb’s worth of fissile material. Now it would take about 12 days,” Kahl, the third-ranking Defense Department official, told lawmakers.
In fact, despite evidence that Iran has now been able to enrich uranium to the bomb-grade level of 87%, the CIA is still saying Iran hasn’t resumed the nuclear weapons program that it stopped in 2003. They never get around to explaining why any nation would need highly enriched uranium to a level of 87% and what they might use it for if not a bomb.
The IAEA report described inspectors discovering on Jan. 21 that two cascades of IR-6 centrifuges at Iran’s Fordo facility had been configured in a way “substantially different” to what had been previously declared. The IAEA took samples the following day, which showed particles up to 83.7% purity, the report said.
“Iran informed the agency that ‘unintended fluctuations’ in enrichment levels may have occurred during the transition period,” the IAEA report said. “Discussions between the agency and Iran to clarify the matter are ongoing.”
The IR-6 centrifuges are third-generation machines that can spin up uranium hexafluoride to a highly enriched state far more efficiently and quickly than previous models. The nuclear agreement allowed Iran to use these advanced machines even though their purpose was to enrich uranium to 60% or more.
As for their “explanation” — “Gee, mom, we didn’t mean to like, actually, you know, like, make a nuclear bomb or anything.”
“Unintended fluctuations,” my ass.
A spokesman for Iran’s civilian nuclear program, Behrouz Kamalvandi, also sought last week to portray any detection of uranium particles enriched to that level as a momentary side effect of trying to reach a finished product of 60% purity. However, experts say such a great variance in the purity even at the atomic level would appear suspicious to inspectors.
Meanwhile, Israel’s window to attack Iran’s nuclear infrastructure is closing fast. It appears that Iran and Russia have struck a deal for Russia to send Tehran their top-of-the-line S-400 anti-aircraft defensive system.
“The longer you wait, the harder that becomes,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said of a strike on Iran at a security conference in Tel Aviv last week. “We’ve waited very long. I can tell you that I will do everything in my power to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.”
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In 2003, President George Bush was very close to destroying Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. This was before the nuclear facility at Nantanz had been placed underground and the Fordor complex hardened. But Bush decided to heed the CIA’s analysis that there was nothing to bomb.
The date when Israel is going to try to destroy Iranian nuclear infrastructure is not far off. Prime Minister Netanyahu is not going to listen to Joe Biden despite the threat of an aid cutoff. And with Russian President Vladimir Putin getting closer to Iran, the possibility of a regional war, if not a world war, becomes a frightening prospect.
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