Democrats have been stuffing themselves with popcorn these last few days, watching Republicans put on a show to remember. The Kevin McCarthy Disappearing Speaker Show may not be exactly what Republicans imagined choosing a speaker of the House would look like, but at least it’s become a boffo attention grabber.
Yesterday, I strongly suggested that McCarthy’s speakership bid was sleeping with the fishes. Indeed, as the votes piled up, McCarthy was bleeding support instead of convincing any of the rebels to change their minds.
But never underestimate the capacity of a man grasping for the brass ring of power to surrender everything to achieve his goals.
Related: Here Are the Latest Deals Kevin McCarthy Has Made to Become Speaker
Politico is reporting that McCarthy and his allies sat down Wednesday night with the 20 or so GOP rebels to see if there could be a meeting of the minds that would give the rebels enough so they’d drop their opposition to the Californian.
The concessions McCarthy is offering are staggering. One senior Republican aide told Politico, “He’s essentially given away all the power of the speakership. He’s making it to where these Freedom Caucus guys can stop anything they want,” the aide told us. “It’s a vanity project. This majority is going to be miserable. It’s just absurd what he’s given away to these guys just to be speaker when I’m sure there’s somebody in this conference that the Freedom Caucus would have accepted as speaker and not demanded all of these crazy changes.”
McCarthy has caved on almost every major point of contention with the rebels:
- After swearing for weeks that he’d never budge on the “motion to vacate” rule so that one member could demand a vote to remove the speaker, McCarthy finally relented and made that part of the deal.
- Four seats on the powerful Rules Committee for the Freedom Caucus.
- An up or down vote on term limits.
- Changes to the appropriations process that would end the practice of midnight votes on trillion-dollar omnibus bills plus a “promise for standalone votes on each of the 12 yearly appropriations bills, which would be considered under what is known as an “open rule,” allowing floor amendments to be offered by any lawmaker,” reports Politico.
On the sidelines, another breakthrough occurred when McCarthy’s Congressional Leadership Fund PAC reached a deal with the conservative Club for Growth to stay out of open primaries in safe GOP districts. This was a major bone of contention between the two powerful PACs and represents a huge victory for the rebels. They will now be able to freely run anyone against an establishment member, forcing the incumbent to spend funds they may need for the general election.
All of these concessions still won’t get McCarthy to the magic number of 218. But his team is hoping the proposals will whittle down the numbers opposing him considerably.
Still, even McCarthy’s closest allies say this isn’t over just yet.
One GOP leadership source told us they believe there are still five “hard nos” against him — Reps. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.), LAUREN BOEBERT (R-Colo.), ANDY BIGGS (R-Ariz.), BOB GOOD (R-Va.) and MATT ROSENDALE (R-Mont.). Reminder: He can only lose four.
As he left the Capitol Wednesday night, Rep. Norman told reporters he hadn’t changed his position on opposing McCarthy. But the terms of this possible deal were still being ironed out at that point, and the nod to his own term-limits proposal might well change things.
McCarthy allies are also worried about freshman Rep. ELI CRANE (R-Ariz.), who we hear has shown no indication of moving.
With all these concessions, McCarthy must now worry about his left flank. He’s already proposed eviscerating the speakership just to get the job. What he seems to have forgotten is that a sizable number of Republican House members resent the tactics of the Freedom Caucus and fear they could set a dangerous precedent.
But most members simply want the ordeal to end.
McCarthy’s camp also expects that he may eventually have to endorse conservatives for committee gavels, such as Rep. ANDY HARRIS (R-Md.), who’s pushing to lead the Health and Human Services subcommittee on Appropriations, or Rep. MARK GREEN (R-Tenn.), who’s gunning to lead the Committee on Homeland Security. (Those decisions are subject to the approval of the GOP steering committee, though McCarthy’s influence is significant.)
If the horsetrading goes that far, it’s bound to piss off many House Republicans who have been team players and supported McCarthy all along. Rep. DAN CRENSHAW (R-Texas), for example, also wants the Homeland Security gavel. But if push comes to shove, McCarthy may well sacrifice his backers’ ambitions to realize his own speakership dream.
Those involved in the discussions don’t think anything could be resolved until early next week. If so, maybe someone should buy the Democrats some more popcorn.
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