Wannabe Speaker of the House Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has a narrowing path to achieve his goal, largely because the opposition to him is adamant that he not ascend to the speakership.
At least seven members have indicated they will not vote for McCarthy under any circumstances. And that sets the stage for a once-in-a-century floor fight that is likely to leave the Republican majority in the House in disarray and the Democrats grinning from ear to ear.
It’s even remotely possible that a Democrat could squeak into the speaker’s chair. It’s highly unlikely, but if the vote for speaker goes on long enough, a few moderate Republicans might say, “to hell with the Freedom Caucus” and back a moderate Democrat. It would only take eight Republican defectors to put a Democrat in the speaker’s chair.
But that’s not going to happen — despite McCarthy’s dire warnings that such a thing was possible. Far more likely is a deal between McCarthy and Freedom Caucus members that will give them the chairmanships of a few committees and perhaps a modified “motion to vacate” that will make it possible for a member to call for a vote on ousting the speaker.
What’s becoming clear is that McCarthy’s chances hinge on the backing of the Republican Governance Group — a caucus of about 50 moderate Republicans who oppose the conservatives’ “motion to vacate” plan.
By using moderates as a critical tool for countering conservatives, McCarthy appears to be carefully positioning himself to say to his right flank: Sorry, your own colleagues won’t support such a demand. Having them play “bad cop” on anything from the motion to vacate to, possibly, a future debt ceiling showdown, for example, could set McCarthy up to be seen as the “good cop” — a reasonable dealmaker trying to find a path forward between warring factions.
But just because there’s a political calculus at play doesn’t mean the moderates aren’t genuine in their opposition to restoring the motion to vacate. Far from it.
But even the moderates might see the value in compromising on the “motion to vacate” rule. Conservatives wanted to use the rule as a club to threaten McCarthy into doing their bidding. But there may be a middle ground.
Many believe that there will be some sort of negotiation whereby McCarthy will have to lower the threshold triggering a vote to perhaps 40% or 30%. In fact, Jordain Carney and Olivia Beavers scooped Wednesday night that Rep. ANDREW CLYDE (R-Ga.) — one of the seven conservatives who signed Friday’s letter — is one such member seeking a compromise, which is good news for McCarthy, who is said to be open to such a deal.
Instead of any single member being able to ask for a motion to vacate, 30% of the Republican caucus would make the motion a more reasonable proposition.
Even if McCarthy prevails as speaker, his troubles have only begun. The GOP is a house divided, riven with factions with differences in policy and especially in strategy. The centrists want to govern, while the conservatives want to make the Democrats pay.
The entire dynamic illustrates that even if McCarthy wins the gavel, he is going to be pulled between two factions of his conference that disagree more ferociously on strategy than on policy itself. While conservatives are expected to embrace shutdown fights and debt ceiling brinkmanship, the larger group of pragmatists will want to govern.
A “good cop, bad cop” approach might be enough to get him the gavel. But whether it will be enough to balance the competing interests of the two factions going forward with such a slim majority is another story.
If they’re smart, Democrats will stand aside and maintain silence as their enemies destroy themselves.
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