Donald Trump may have a substantial lead in the 2024 Republican presidential primary, but the race is actually shaping up to be a two-man race between Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. While a number of other Republicans have announced their candidacy, none of them have been able to generate much excitement or momentum.
Trump is the clear frontrunner in the race. He remains popular among Republican voters, and he has a deep well of financial resources to draw on. DeSantis is a rising star in the Republican Party, and he has been praised for his leadership in the Sunshine State and has shown tremendous ability to raise money. He is also seen as a more polished alternative to Trump, which could appeal to some Republican voters who are looking for a change.
It is still early in the race, and anything could happen. But as things stand now, it looks like the 2024 GOP primary will come down to a battle between Trump and DeSantis, likely similar to the Obama/Hillary battle of 2008. Everyone else is a distraction.
Some candidates like Tim Scott and Nikki Haley may be using the primaries as an audition for being Trump’s running mate. But others like Mike Pence, Doug Burgum, Chris Christie, and Asa Hutchinson are acting like they can win when they can’t. Chris Christie in particular clearly has some anti-Trump axe to grind and is wasting everyone’s time with a bid that will go nowhere. Mike Pence may be a nice guy, but despite his name recognition after serving as vice president, he can’t get out of single digits in the polls.
Related: Why Is the Media Rushing to Write DeSantis’s Political Obituary?
Frankly, I’d have no problem with either Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis being the next president. But any Republican who is running to stop Trump should drop out of the race. There is no realistic path to victory for them. When you look at the polls, they are only splitting the anti-Trump vote, which will make it easier for Trump to win.
As I’ve pointed out before, polls have shown that much of Trump’s support comes from swayable primary voters. Consequently, the most effective strategy for preventing Trump from winning the nomination is consolidating support behind a credible alternative, which currently appears to be Ron DeSantis. Should this happen, it is plausible that a more competitive primary race between Trump and DeSantis would ensue, with DeSantis having a greater opportunity to narrow the gap in the polls, thereby increasing his perceived viability as a candidate.
The only reason for any candidate to stay in the race is if they think they have a chance to win. Does anyone really believe that Chris Christie thinks he can win or that he just wants to get on stage to confront the man who didn’t give him a cabinet position back in 2017?
Personally, I’m not interested in a sideshow in the 2024 GOP primaries. Multiple polls indicate that both Trump and DeSantis can defeat Joe Biden in the general election. Therefore, it would be advantageous to allow these two contenders to engage in a head-to-head competition, free from the distractions of vanity candidates and those aspiring to be the nominee’s running mate.
If your goal is to stop Trump, this is the way.
