A theme has emerged in the coverage of the 2024 Republican primary. You’ve probably noticed in the past couple of weeks stories about how Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is faltering in the polls and his moment could be over. This narrative is also being boosted on social media by Trump loyalists. But it’s all wrong, and I’ll tell you why.
Bloomberg reported this week that DeSantis is trying to regain momentum after some recent missteps caused his polling to take a hit. It’s true that GOP primary polling has shown Donald Trump’s numbers boosted in recent weeks, but this has less to do with anything Ron DeSantis has done and more to do with what Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg has done.
The rise in Trump’s polling came in response to Bragg’s partisan indictment of the former president last month. Trump saw a substantial surge in the Yahoo/YouGov poll after the indictment, expanding his lead over Ron DeSantis to 26 points — the largest margin ever — compared to 8 points two weeks prior. Trump also saw a significant surge in campaign donations, raising over $12 million in the days following the indictment. Republicans are rallying behind Trump, whom they see as the target of a politicized legal system orchestrated by individuals who seek to prevent his return to the presidency.
Polling bounces tend to be temporary, and DeSantis is not even officially in the race yet. So Trump’s formidable lead in the polls right now is likely to fade with time, and particularly when DeSantis officially enters the race — assuming he does. And make no mistake about it, Trump knows that DeSantis could beat him in a primary. How can we tell? He’s threatening DeSantis and practically begging him not to run.
Related: Here’s Why Donald Trump Fears Ron DeSantis
And, contrary to what Trump loyalists are saying, DeSantis is probably better positioned to beat Biden.
“For all of the talk of DeSantis’ supposed ‘electability,’ Trump is actually doing slightly better vs Biden in the RCP average of polls,” Andrew Surabian, a Republican strategist who worked on the Trump campaign in the Trump White House, observed on Twitter. “Smart people understand why that should be a 5 alarm fire for Ron, since unlike DJT, he hasn’t even begun facing any real national vetting yet.”
“The media onslaught against Trump has been well documented – His negs are baked in,” Surabian continues. “We also saw what they did to Romney & McCain. So for DeSantis to not be polling better vs Biden than Trump is *BEFORE* he even really begins facing their onslaught…Should be a gigantic red flag.”
Surabian couldn’t be more wrong. It’s a red flag for Trump, not DeSantis.
The polling Surabian cites reveals a negligible disparity between the performance of the two candidates against Joe Biden — well within the margin of error. Therefore, their standing against Biden is virtually identical. So, Trump is polling roughly the same as a candidate who isn’t even in the race yet. From where I sit, this shows Trump’s relative lack of strength as the Republican nominee rather than DeSantis’s weakness.
Given Trump’s established national profile, it would be expected that he would outperform DeSantis by a more considerable margin in a general election, particularly against Joe Biden. The American electorate has a foundation for comparing Trump and Biden, and Trump is only beating Biden in the RealClearPolitics average by less than two points.
Since the nation under Trump’s leadership was far better off than it has been under Biden’s presidency, there is no plausible justification for why Trump should not outperform Biden by a more substantial margin. DeSantis has garnered increased national attention of late, but he’s not even an official candidate yet and is an unknown quantity to many voters. It is far more likely that Trump has hit a polling ceiling, while DeSantis, assuming he runs, enters the race from a position of strength, polling ahead of Biden before he’s even had a chance to share his vision for America with the public.
This is why some are urging DeSantis to jump in the race now.
“Politics is about seizing the moment — his moment was in December and January — and the door for the Florida governor is closing with every day that he doesn’t formally launch a campaign,” Republican strategist Dennis Lennox told the Charlotte Observer. “DeSantis can win this race, but he needs to get in now.”
