Will Biden’s crashing approval ratings hurt Democrats’ chances of holding onto the Senate? It certainly looks that way right now. A poll from the Democrat-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP) early last month had Democrat incumbent Raphael Warnock up by a mere two points in a matchup against Trump-backed Herschel Walker, but a new CDMedia poll shows that Walker, the frontrunner for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate, is currently leading Warnock by 5 points.
“A more fired-up Republican base has already coalesced behind Herschel Walker and the crossover vote favors him, as well,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris said. “But the size and scope of Walker’s advantage over Raphael Warnock is blinding when drilling down on area and region.”
Baris notes that Walker is “is dominating among all the key regional demographics.”
“Nearly two-thirds of white voters [65.0%] chose Walker, as did slightly more than 1 in 10 black voters [10.1%]. White voters represent slightly more than 6 in 10 voters in the Georgia electorate, while non-white voters combined typically represent just under 4 in 10,” reports CDMedia. “Warnock leads among urban voters 56.2% to 29.2%, while Walker dominates among rural voters 62.6% to 22.3%. The two candidates are statistically tied in the suburbs at 44%.”
The key to the election next year, however, will most likely come down to turnout.
“Both Republican candidates for the U.S. Senate in Georgia lost on January 5 because they failed to generate enough turnout among the base in Central and South / Coastal Georgia regions,” Baris said. “Democrats didn’t win those races. Republicans lost them by not defending the former president.”
“Herschel Walker is not suffering from the same disadvantages,” Baris insists.
Big Data Poll was recognized by the New York Post last year for having more accurate polling than many leading media polling outfits.
Herschel Walker holds an enormous lead over the other GOP primary challengers, according to the latest poll from the Trafalgar Group.