Over at Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog, Joe Biden has an 89% chance of winning the election, while Trump’s chances are just 10 in a 100.
Ah, but there’s a catch.
If you’re skeptical of polling (like I am) and have been looking at other factors in assessing the likely outcome (like I have) then when you look at his map, you see quite a few states listed as toss-ups that Trump is actually likely to win.
In fact, Nate Silver himself notes that if Trump wins Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina (all states I expect him to win) Trump’s chances are basically 50/50.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 2, 2020
Playing with FiveThirtyEight’s map tool further, if you add Arizona into Trump’s column, Trump has a 60/40 chance of winning the election. Add Ohio, it goes up to 90/10.
Now, for what it’s worth, I believe Trump will win all of the above states. Nate Silver, however, doesn’t. All of these states are toss-ups on his map that lean slightly blue. Of course, he was wrong last time, so don’t take his word as gospel. Still, this forecasting tool tells us how winning just a few toss-up states changes the dynamic of the election dramatically.
Matt Margolis is the author of the new book Airborne: How The Liberal Media Weaponized The Coronavirus Against Donald Trump, and the bestselling book The Worst President in History: The Legacy of Barack Obama. You can follow Matt on Twitter @MattMargolis