What recession? Am I right? The Trump economy is blowing away expectations with the economy adding 266,000 jobs in November, far surpassing the anticipated 187,000 economists predicted. The unemployment rate also dropped to 3.5%.
Stocks opened sharply higher in reaction to the better-than-expected report. Bond yields also surged.
“Bottom line, America is working,” Larry Summers, director of the National Economic Council, told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.” “These are very strong numbers. These are happy numbers, these are sunny Friday numbers.”
The jobs growth was the best since January’s 312,000 and well clear of the November 2018 total of 196,000. While hopes already were up, much of that was based on the return of General Motors workers following a lengthy strike. That dynamic indeed boosted employment in motor vehicles and parts by 41,300, part of an overall 54,000 gain in manufacturing. The vehicles and parts sector had fallen by 42,800 in October.
That’s not all. September and October also performed better than their original estimates. “September’s estimate went up 13,000 to 193,000 and the initial October count increased by 28,000 to 156,000. Those changes added 41,000 to the previous tallies and brought the 2019 monthly average to 180,000, compared with 223,000 in 2018.”
“This is a blowout number and the U.S. economy continues to be all about the jobs,” Tony Bedikian, head of global markets for Citizens Bank said in a note. “The unemployment rate is at a 50-year low and wages are increasing. Business owners may be getting more cautious due to trade and political uncertainty and growth may be slow, but consumers keep spending and the punch bowl still seems full.”
The unemployment rate of 3.5%, down from 3.6% in October, is back to the 2019 low and matches the lowest jobless rate since 1969. The U.S. economy needs to create about 107,000 jobs a month to keep the unemployment rate steady, according to calculations from the Atlanta Federal Reserve.
“Today’s job report, more than any other report in recent months, squashed any lingering concerns about an imminent recession in the US economy,” said Gad Levanon, head of the Conference Board’s Labor Market Institute. “Employment growth also shows no signs of slowing further despite the historically low unemployment rate.”
If you’re a Democrat running for president, it’s a bad day for you. The Trump economy is hot, strong, and beating expectations.
Matt Margolis is the author of Trumping Obama: How President Trump Saved Us From Barack Obama’s Legacy and the bestselling book The Worst President in History: The Legacy of Barack Obama. You can follow Matt on Twitter @MattMargolis