A new Emerson College poll for New York has Donald Trump getting trounced by both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders in his home state this November if he is the GOP nominee. The poll is significant because Trump has maintained that he “expands the map” for the GOP with his candidacy. But Clinton beats him quite handily in New York, 55% to 36% and Sanders bests him 53% to 36%. Trump’s closest rival, Ted Cruz, loses to Clinton by 31 points (61% to 30%). The good news for Trump is that he easily beats Cruz for the state’s 95 delegates by more than 50 points: 64 – 12. John Kasich only gets 1%, despite his big win in Ohio.
Via Hot Air:
That puts Trump well over the 50% threshold for winner-take-all allocation, while leaving Cruz and Kasich well below the 20% threshold for any allocation in the event of a plurality. Trump, the home-state candidate, also gets the most favorable marks in the GOP field, +48 against Cruz’ +8 and Kasich’s +20.
But the fact that Trump can’t get to 40% in his home state in head-to-head polling portends disaster at the ballot box this November.
Hot Air’s Ed Morrissey asks a good question:
What makes anyone think that Trump could beat Hillary in California or Massachusetts, or even in Pennsylvania or Michigan?
The theory that Trump expands the Republican general-election map and provides a new path to 270 has no evidence supporting it. Right now, it looks like pure fantasy.
It’s also hard to see how Trump expands the map when half of the U.S. electorate holds a “very unfavorable” view of the candidate.