I can remember in 2016 thinking that everything was going sour. Pretty much every poll showed Hillary Clinton winning the presidential election by a landslide, and we were headed toward a national disaster. It was a rough time for me because I was convinced President Hillary was inevitable. And then everything changed.
Similarly, Democrats winning the midterms this year has been another perceived inevitability. Between history and the polls working in their favor, it’s been really hard to argue that November is going to turn out well for the Democratic Party. But things aren’t as good for the Democrats as one might think, and even CNN is giving them a reality check.
CNN’s chief analyst, Harry Enten, is literally warning Democrats that they don’t have the midterms locked up, no matter how much they hype Trump's supposed toxicity. Redistricting has thrown a wrench in their plans, and with the vote just six or seven months out, Republicans are hanging tough.
You'd figure Democrats' edge on the generic congressional ballot would balloon by now. Back in March, they led by six points. Fast forward, and it has actually shrunk. "Democrats are up by three points, and I want you to note the yellow lettering. No clear leader. It is within the margin of error," Enten pointed out.
ICYMI: The Language Got a Little Salty on CNN Monday Night
So much for Trump’s alleged unpopularity being electoral poison. Enten’s message was clear: a three-point lead in the generic ballot isn’t enough for Democrats to win the majority.
"No. No, it might not actually get the job done." He crunched the numbers on what Dems need post-redistricting—a national House vote margin of three to four points for control. "If this were, in fact, the actual result come election day, the race for Congress, the race for the House, would be basically a toss-up."
"There’s no doubt that redistricting flipped the script hard. But now, with the redistricting, their ladder, they have to climb ever higher, and a three-point win may very well not do it," Enten explained. Sure, Dems could outperform and flip it if they surge a bit. Underperform, though? Big trouble. "This game is most certainly not over. Republicans are very much in the race for the House of Representatives. They're in that game."
Host John Berman pressed on the economy angle: "If his numbers are so bad, then why aren't Democrats benefiting?"
"Yeah, that's exactly it… If we look among registered voters, the net approval rating, he's 36 points underwater." Everyone screams Republicans can't hold the House. Wrong. "Which party is trusted more on the economy? It's a tie among registered voters. Just because Donald Trump is unpopular doesn't make Democrats popular. And when you match Democrats against Republicans, all of a sudden, it is a dead heat."
A few weeks ago, the conventional wisdom was that Republicans were headed for a brutal midterm wipeout. Pundits were openly talking about Democrats taking back the House and the Senate. That narrative is starting to crack. Yes, it’s still early, and plenty can change between now and Election Day, but despite the headwinds facing the GOP, Democrats are struggling, and the majority they seemed so certain to reclaim may be slipping through their fingers.
