Virginia Democrats, led by Gov. Abigail Spanberger, thought they had pulled off the perfect power grab. This voter-approved redistricting referendum would turn the battleground state into the most gerrymandered in the country. But what looked like a clean political win last month unraveled fast. In fact, since the vote, nothing has gone their way, and it looks like the gerrymandered map is gonna get crushed by the Virginia Supreme Court.
Honestly, it’s hard not to see why.
Democrats' own lawyers conceded under questioning that the legislature had not followed its own internal rules while pushing the referendum forward. That’s a pretty damning admission there. Then the court denied Attorney General Jay Jones's motion to stay an injunction blocking certification of the redistricting referendum results. Certification had been scheduled for last Friday. With the stay denied, that meant the deadline for even changing the map would likely not be met.
But it gets even worse for the Democrats.
Dan Turrentine, a former Democratic political operative with a reputation for telling his own party things it doesn't want to hear, has been tracking the situation closely.
"Well, I talked to some of those same people yesterday, and what I was told is they now think it's less than 50% that the court will let the certification go through," Turrentine said on The Huddle, a podcast he co-hosts with Sean Spicer and Rachael Bade. "And what really triggered it, they said, was when the court didn't rule by Friday afternoon. They don't believe time is on their side. And what apparently transpired over the weekend — and this person would know, they're in contact with the people I'm about to say — is that the governor's staff is now snipping at the Senate majority leader and House speaker that they warned them last fall this would not pass legal review."
.@danturrentine Dems VA redistricting worries: “What I was told yesterday is that they now think it’s less than 50% that the court will let the certification go through. The Governor’s staff is now snipping at the Sen Maj and House Speaker that they warned them last fall this… pic.twitter.com/bxfY0mvBIC
— The Huddle (@theDChuddle) May 5, 2026
Well, that’s something. The governor knew the gerrymander wouldn’t survive a legal challenge. In other words, they knew it was done illegally. Think of all the time, money, and resources they spent trying to get this thing passed — even recruiting Barack Obama for the cause. All of that for something they knew was doomed.
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The Virginia Supreme Court has yet to issue a final opinion on whether the maps are constitutional. But the tea leaves are not subtle. Virginia Democrats gambled that voters would hand them the keys to the congressional map, and voters narrowly did. But the courts are a different audience. Democrats were so desperate to get the referendum passed, they didn’t follow the law. And this will make Spanberger look like a fool.
This is a devastating blow to the Democrats in the redistricting wars. One that they deserve, frankly. They’ve spent years carving up states to maximize their representation in Congress, and it’s great to see Republicans fighting back for a change and making progress beating them at their own game.
