There’s a strange political paradox unfolding right now, one that could decide who controls Congress after the midterms. On paper, Republicans should have a real shot at defying history. The economy is stabilizing. Inflation is cooling. Job numbers are improving. Yet something isn’t clicking with voters the way it should. Why does it feel like Republicans are still running uphill, even with the wind at their backs?
I’ve said before that historical trends favor Democrats in midterm elections, but this year may not follow the script. Frankly, it shouldn’t. Things are much better today than they were under Biden, but it’s hard to feel it when prices remain stubbornly high.
That said, if voters believe the economy is improving, Republicans can absolutely pull off an upset. The March jobs report suggests that kind of shift is possible. On the surface, things are moving in the right direction. But here’s the problem. The surface doesn’t match what people feel in their daily lives.
Donald Trump won in 2024 in part because Joe Biden’s economy was so devastating. Inflation crushed household budgets. Everyday essentials jumped in price at a pace Americans hadn’t seen in decades. That pain didn’t disappear just because inflation slowed down. Cooling inflation simply means prices are rising more slowly. It doesn’t mean they’re going down.
On top of that, the increase in gas prices due to the war in Iran isn’t helping. I have no doubt this will be temporary, but even if gas prices go back down when the war ends, which should be soon, the high prices caused by Bidenflation aren’t going to decrease. And people tend to blame the party in power, which is hurting Trump and Republicans politically.
People walk into grocery stores and still feel sticker shock. Utility bills still hurt. And, thanks to Obamacare, we’re paying more for healthcare than ever before.
For most Americans, life feels expensive in a way that hasn’t meaningfully improved. A 2025 poll found that 80% of Americans are still feeling the sting of high grocery prices, even though wages have technically outpaced inflation.
That disconnect creates an opening Democrats are eager to exploit. They’re running on “affordability,” carefully sidestepping the fact that the affordability crisis was born from Biden-era policies.
Unfortunately, voters don’t always trace cause and effect across election cycles. They react to what’s in front of them.
Right now, what’s in front of them is still expensive, and the party in power can’t solve the problem overnight. So Republicans are stuck owning conditions they didn’t create. Recent polling shows Trump underwater on key economic issues that helped return him to office. It’s not because his policies triggered the crisis. It’s because he’s the one in charge while voters are still feeling it.
In fairness, Trump didn’t help himself when he promised during the campaign that he’d bring grocery prices down. That’s an easy promise to make and a nearly impossible one to deliver in the short term. Prices rarely reverse in any meaningful way once they’ve surged. The damage from inflation always seems to linger.
The good news is that Republicans still have a chance. The Democrats’ lead in the generic congressional ballot is historically narrow because, despite everything, the GOP has higher favorability ratings. This means that Republicans still have a path to turn things around. If economic sentiment improves even modestly, the map could shift quickly.
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The ghost of Joe Biden’s failures is still here and isn’t fading fast enough. It’s lingering, shaping perceptions, and quietly dragging down the very people who are fixing things.
