Democrats spent years gerrymandering blue states, robbing Republicans of representation in Congress. Over the summer, Republicans started fighting back, sparking a mid-cycle redistricting war that pretty much everyone predicted would work out in the Republicans’ favor.
But are they blowing it?
It’s starting to look like the so-called Republican “redistricting advantage” might be slipping right through their fingers. At least, that’s the takeaway from CNN’s own Harry Enten, who sounded almost gleeful as he explained how the mid-decade map wars have turned against the GOP.
“Donald Trump and the Republicans started this redistricting fight,” Enten claimed, which is technically not true, but I digress. Enten continued, “but it looks like that the Democrats are going to finish them off.”
According to Enten, what began as a potential five-seat Republican pickup has somehow morphed into a likely Democrat gain. “It looked like Republicans … were going to gain nationwide … five seats,” he said. “But today, at this point, the most likely outcome is Democrats actually gaining from the mid-decade redistricting battle.”
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He didn’t hedge much either, beyond a few obligatory statistical caveats. “I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s tied,” Enten offered, “I wouldn’t be surprised if Democrats actually gained two or three seats from the mid-decade redistricting battle.” Then he summed it up in plain English: “It started out as a plus for Republicans, and now it looks like the Democrats have fought back and fought back in a major way, and it looks like it’s going to be a plus for them nationwide.”
Anchor Kate Bolduan pressed him on the state-by-state picture: “Which states are you thinking are going to present a more advantage for one party over another?”
Enten didn’t hesitate. “California, of course, Gavin Newsom, five seats for the Democrats,” he said. “Utah, court ruling there, one seat.”
Enten then pointed to Texas, where this all started.
“Maybe a four-seat gain from Texas,” he said, adding, “I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if that was, in fact, three. Only three. Not the five we thought it was going to start out with.” Even worse, he explained, “taking away seats from the Republicans nationwide. One in North Carolina. One in Ohio. Basically, even.”
There are just a few problems with Enten’s analysis.
The battle over Utah’s map is ongoing, with the state GOP appealing the court decision that Enten cited. As for Texas, the new map was designed with a five-seat gain for the GOP. Not four. Not three. Five. The Supreme Court is allowing that map to be in place for the 2026 midterms.
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Now, of course, there are other states to keep an eye on, like New York, Maryland, and even Virginia. But much of this is in flux due to pending court rulings, and, of course, the pending ruling on the Voting Rights Act, which could end the racial gerrymanders that Democrats rely so much on for power.
What a change from last summer on mid-decade redistricting! Trump & the GOP started the fight in 2025, but, at this point, it looks like the Dems will finish it.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) January 22, 2026
Dems are more likely to gain from mid-decade redistricting than the GOP thanks to CA+UT & potentially VA,NY & MD. pic.twitter.com/lNIijEDfwn
With some exceptions, I’ve found Enten to be a straight shooter who doesn’t usually sugarcoat things for the Democrats like others at CNN tend to do. But Enten’s argument that Democrats are now poised to gain more House seats than Republicans from redistricting doesn’t quite make sense.
From the very beginning of this redistricting war, it was clear that there were more opportunities for Republicans to gain seats than Democrats because blue states were so heavily gerrymandered already. Without a doubt, Republicans had more chances to make gains, and while the court system is biased against them, it’s still hard to see how Republicans don’t come out ahead, or at the very least, this all ends up in a wash.
