The mainstream media has been working overtime to sell the narrative that Trump's presidency is in political peril and that Democrats are poised to dominate next year's midterm elections. Historically speaking, that’s a relatively safe assumption, because the party out of power typically gains seats in midterm elections. But are things really all that bad for the GOP?
A new poll from Napolitan News Service suggests that Republicans are stronger than you might think heading into next year’s midterms. The latest generic congressional ballot survey shows Republicans leading Democrats by 4 points among registered voters nationally, with 48% backing GOP candidates compared to 44% for Democrats. Breaking that down further, 45% say they would vote Republican if the election were held today, while 41% would vote Democrat. Another 3% lean Republican and 3% lean Democrat, producing that 4-point GOP advantage. Only 8% of respondents appear truly disengaged, with 3% saying they wouldn't vote and 5% unsure.
2026 Generic congressional ballot
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) December 6, 2025
🔴 Republicans: 48% (+4)
🔵 Democrats: 44%
Napolitan News/RMG poll | 12/1-12/4 pic.twitter.com/94HlaNib6E
The Republican edge has grown steadily throughout the year in RMG's polling, a trend the media would rather ignore. Back in April, Democrats held a five-point advantage. By May, that had shrunk to three points. Then the script flipped entirely, with Republicans surging to leads as high as eight points in June and seven points in January. The three most recent polls show Republicans at a one-point lead in September, a two-point lead in late October, and a four-point lead in early December.
If this poll is accurate, that is objectively bad news for Democrats. Enthusiasm for next year's congressional elections is also running high, with 37% of voters saying they're very enthusiastic and 33% somewhat enthusiastic. That's 70% expressing at least some level of enthusiasm, similar to what pollsters saw before the 2022 midterms. Only 26% report being not very or not at all enthusiastic, with 4% unsure.
Still, even this poll, which looks good for the GOP, isn't all great news. Looking more closely at voter enthusiasm reveals nuances that should temper GOP optimism. Among those who are very enthusiastic about voting—the voters most likely actually to turn out and vote—Democrats hold a slight 50% to 48% edge over Republicans. Trump-aligned voters show strong engagement, with 43% reporting they're very enthusiastic, roughly matching Democratic levels of enthusiasm. That doesn’t sound all that bad, but traditional Republicans are far less energized, with only 22% saying they're very enthusiastic about voting next year. Age also plays a significant role in who's fired up: senior voters over 65 lead the pack at 57% very enthusiastic, while younger voters between 18 and 44 lag considerably at just 27% very enthusiastic.
But, I'm gonna tell you something: This is just one poll out of many that give the edge to Democrats. I'm not going to lecture you about different pollsters or methodologies, or play the cherry-picking polls game. This poll may have some good news for Republicans, but this poll, like the others that have entirely different results, means nothing. We're just under a year from the midterm elections. Things are changing, and I strongly believe that a better indicator of how next year’s elections will go will be economic perception next summer. If people are feeling better about the economy during June, July, and August, that will be a better predictor than any generic ballot poll a year out from the elections.
So, don't worry about the generic ballot polls yet. There's a lot of time between today and the midterm elections.
