Democrats have spent decades gerrymandering states to lock in their power and gaming the census to boost representation in blue strongholds. Now that Republicans are fighting back, the left is screaming foul — but history and arithmetic suggest this fight won’t end well for them. Simply put, there are far more red states positioned to redraw maps before the 2026 midterms than blue ones. So what happens when the redistricting war goes full throttle?
Let’s take a look.
Currently, the House is razor-thin, with the Republicans holding 220 seats and the Democrats at 215. All it would take for Democrats to flip the chamber is a net gain of three seats. This is why Newsom has aggressively responded to Texas’s redistricting plans.
We already know that Republicans are in a much stronger position to expand their House majority than Democrats. Republicans control far more state legislatures with redistricting authority, giving them multiple paths to add seats while minimizing Democratic opportunities.
But how much of an edge can it give them? DecisionDeskHQ did the math, and I can tell you that Democrats are very likely to regret their escalation.
Based on current redistricting projections, Republicans are poised to make significant gains in key states. Texas could deliver 3 to 5 additional GOP seats, Florida 2 to 4, and Ohio 2 to 3. Smaller gains are possible as well, in Indiana, Missouri, Kansas, and Kentucky. Nebraska is unlikely to change.
Democrats, by contrast, are looking at more limited opportunities. California could add 3 to 5 Democratic seats, while Maryland, Utah, Illinois, and Wisconsin might contribute one or two more. Most likely, the Democrats’ net gain would be just 3 to 5 seats, heavily concentrated in California.
Taken together, these numbers suggest that Republicans are in a stronger position to expand their House majority. In a midterm where control is already razor-thin, this edge could prove decisive.
Related: For Democrats, It’s Just ‘Different’ When They Gerrymander
“Fact is, Republicans control more states in which the legislature has redistricting power, which gives them many paths to adding seats,” writes Geoffrey Skelley of DecisionDeskHQ. “Via legislative action, Republicans might add somewhere between 11 and 17 seats. Democrats, meanwhile, might add somewhere between four and 10 seats, although a figure close to the lower end of that range is far more likely. All told, this amounts to a GOP gain of somewhere between 2 and 13 seats from redistricting, with a high-single digit figure probably the most likely outcome at this point. Naturally, much depends on whether some states actually redraw their lines.”
Democrats should have figured out the simple truth: Escalating the redistricting wars is a risky gamble when your party controls so few states that actually have the power to redraw maps. The arithmetic is unforgiving.
For a party that has spent years crying “gerrymandering!” from the rooftops, the irony is palpable. By pushing redistricting into the spotlight, Democrats may have handed Republicans a decisive advantage just in time for the 2026 midterms.
In short, the House isn’t just razor-thin; it’s ripe for a Republican sweep. And Democrats? They’re about to learn the hard way that when it comes to redistricting, addition and subtraction are everything — and they are playing with a losing calculator.
