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The Obamacare Recession Is Coming Next Year

AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File

After fifteen years of false promises and government overreach, the Affordable Care Act is barreling toward its most destructive chapter yet. Premiums are projected to spike by a median of 15 percent in 2026—the largest single-year increase in over half a decade—and the economic fallout could trigger a recession unless Republicans act quickly.

Let’s be clear: this isn’t an unintended glitch or a one-time anomaly. It’s the logical result of a failed policy experiment that Democrats rammed through without regard for constitutional boundaries or market realities. The fantasy Obama sold to the American people—that you could keep your doctor and save money—was always going to collapse under the weight of subsidies, mandates, and bureaucratic meddling. Now the bill is coming due.

The numbers are jaw-dropping. Since Democrats supercharged Obamacare with expanded subsidies, enrollment has more than doubled—from 11.4 million in 2020 to over 24 million in 2025. They claimed this was progress. What it actually created was a bloated welfare program that now requires enormous taxpayer funding just to function. Without those subsidies, premiums are set to soar.

A family of four in Charlotte, North Carolina could see their annual healthcare costs jump by nearly $9,500. A 60-year-old couple earning $85,000 a year? Their premiums will skyrocket from $6,900 to over $22,300.

This is not sustainable. 

These are middle-income Americans—teachers, tradesmen, and small business owners—who will soon be forced to choose between health coverage and putting food on the table. And the damage won’t stop there.

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These premium hikes will drag the economy down with them. Consumer spending is what drives the U.S. economy. When millions of Americans are suddenly forced to redirect thousands of dollars to inflated healthcare costs, that’s money not being spent at local businesses, on rent, or at the grocery store. Small employers will be hit hard, too, either slashing benefits or cutting staff just to survive.

This is the crisis Obama claimed he would fix. Instead, he lit the fuse. Health insurance premiums have soared nonstop since the day Obamacare became law. The Affordable Care Act didn’t solve the problem—it created it. Americans were promised relief and got a wrecking ball instead.

The economic consequences won’t stay confined to the healthcare sector. As families buckle under the weight of rising premiums, home sales will stall, credit card debt will climb, and consumer confidence will erode. The law Democrats championed as a safety net has turned into a financial anchor dragging the economy underwater.

And here’s the undeniable truth: the only time my premiums actually dropped was under President Donald Trump. That’s not a coincidence—it’s proof that conservative policy works. If Trump and the GOP don’t act now to dismantle this failed monstrosity, the coming rate hikes will trigger more than personal hardship—they’ll help spark the next national recession.

Democrats built this slow-motion disaster. It’s up to Republicans to stop it before the damage becomes irreversible. The Obamacare recession is no longer a warning—it’s a countdown.

If the Republican majority doesn’t fix this, 2026 will be a disaster. And worse yet, Democrats will be able to reap the political benefits because Trump and the Republicans have control.

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