If you don’t think Gov. Gavin Newsom will run for president in 2028, you aren’t paying attention. It’s been obvious for years now, and while many people think he’s the candidate to beat in the general election, I think he’s less of a threat than people realize. Lately, it seems as if there’s always something that will doom his inevitable campaign, from budget disasters, to transparency scandals, to his botched efforts to play the middle on gender ideology. But I think all of that will be inconsequential to the real issue that will tank his campaign.
If you want to know what may doom Gavin Newsom’s 2028 presidential ambitions more than anything else, look no further than the scorched earth of Pacific Palisades. And I’m not even talking about the lack of preparedness that made the disaster so much worse than it needed to be. What I’m talking about is the aftermath.
That’s where the real tragedy unfolded.
Californians were promised a swift recovery, but what they got was a teachable moment in government incompetence and ideological overreach.
From the outset, it was clear that the state’s response was more about political theater than genuine help. We all remember how Newsom showed up for the cameras, offering the usual platitudes, but when it came to real answers for the families who lost everything, he vanished.
And what happened afterwards is as much a tragedy as the fire itself. Displaced homeowners have found themselves trapped in a maze of red tape that seemed designed to break their spirit. Permitting fees alone soared past $20,000—an impossible sum for families already wiped out by disaster. And that was just the beginning. New oppressive building codes, mandatory solar panels, wider setbacks, and endless soil sampling requirements piled on costs that insurance would never cover. The dream of rebuilding became a bureaucratic nightmare, a mountain of paperwork and bills that only grew steeper with each passing week.
ICYMI: The Democratic Party Civil War Just Escalated Big Time
The numbers tell the story. In all of Los Angeles County, a mere 44 building permits have been approved since the fires. Out of nearly 900 applications in the Eaton Fire area, the process drags on for months, with an average turnaround of ten weeks, and no end in sight. Every week, more families give up hope, pack their bags, and leave California behind. The longer the process takes, the fewer will ever return—a fact even the county’s own surveys admit.
That will always hang over his head. And with that, Newsom’s dreams of being a viable presidential candidate get further out of reach. Few things test leadership better than disaster response. From George W. Bush’s response to 9/11 to Gov. Ron DeSantis’s leadership in the wake of Hurricanes Milton and Helene, some leaders meet the moment. Gov. Gavin Newsom has not. Instead, his governorship has been a case study in everything wrong with big government.
The roadblocks to rebuilding in California aren’t just a local tragedy—they’re a warning to the rest of America. This is what happens when government puts ideology before people, when bureaucratic red tape and social engineering take precedence over compassion, common sense, and genuine leadership. If Newsom thinks he can take this record to the national stage in 2028, he’s in for a rude awakening. The images of burned-out homes, the stories of families driven out by red tape and ideological mandates—these will haunt his campaign. America is watching, and it sees a leader who abandoned his own people when they needed him most. That’s not just a political liability; it’s a cautionary tale for the entire country: Don’t let America become California.
