I may be a fan of Elon Musk, but I’m not deluding myself into thinking that his proposal for a third party, which he calls the America Party, is a good idea. In fact, despite the hype it’s getting, it is most certainly destined for two outcomes.
First, it’s bound to siphon conservative votes away from the GOP, weakening the very movement Musk claims to support. Second, it’s destined to crash and burn as yet another third-party fantasy with no real path to victory. And these two outcomes aren’t separate. The America Party is doomed to fail and drag down the conservative cause with it. That’s not bold innovation; it’s political sabotage dressed up as disruption.
And you don’t have to take my word for it. The numbers paint a picture of political delusion that would make even the most optimistic campaign manager reach for the resignation letter. CNN's senior data analyst Harry Enten delivered a brutal assessment of Musk's potential voter base, revealing that the tech mogul can count on a measly 4% of the electorate.
"This entire thing makes very little sense to me. It makes about as much sense as selling sand in the desert," Enten observed, cutting straight to the heart of Musk's political fantasy.
What makes this 4% figure even more pathetic is its composition. These aren't voters looking for a revolutionary new political movement; they're simply people who view Musk favorably while disliking the GOP. The problem for Musk is that most Americans who actually like him already have a political home in the Republican Party. "Most of the people who like Elon Musk already like the GOP. That is, they already have a party," Enten explained, highlighting the fundamental miscalculation in Musk's strategy.
The comparison to Ross Perot, the most successful third-party presidential candidate in recent memory, only makes Musk's prospects look more hopeless. When Perot launched his independent bid in 1992, he faced unfavorable ratings from just 14% of Americans. Musk, by contrast, enters the political arena with a staggering 58% of Americans already viewing him unfavorably.
"Musk starts off with far more against him than Ross Perot ever did," Enten noted, emphasizing how Musk would be "going into an electorate that already dislikes him, is already against him."
This massive unfavorability rating represents perhaps the most insurmountable obstacle to Musk's political ambitions. While Perot could present himself as a fresh face to an electorate willing to give him a chance, Musk has already burned through his political capital with the left because of his previous alliance with Trump. So, without a doubt, that means the overwhelming majority of voters who will align themselves with his America Party are Republicans.
And, as CNN’s John Berman noted, while the 4% that make up the America Party could theoretically be enough to "sway an election back and forth," this represents Musk's ceiling, not his floor. The Ralph Nader comparison is telling because Nader's 2000 campaign is remembered mostly for likely costing Al Gore the election. Enten's assessment was blunt: "He could spoil it for the GOP, but he probably can't win it himself."
BRUTAL: America Party support maxes out at 4% of all voters. pic.twitter.com/yq5eLeF4Nn
— Bad Hombre (@joma_gc) July 7, 2025
The fundamental problem with Musk's third-party dreams lies not just in the numbers but in the nature of American politics itself. As much as we all say we hate it, the two-party system has proven remarkably resilient precisely because it forces diverse coalitions to work within existing structures rather than fragmenting into ineffective splinter groups.
I love you, Elon, but there’s a better way.
