The Empire State, long considered an impenetrable Democratic fortress, is showing unprecedented cracks in its blue wall. And if Gov. Kathy Hochul's abysmal approval ratings are any indication, we might be witnessing a historic political realignment that could turn New York red for the first time since the George Pataki era.
Remember 2022? Hochul barely squeaked by Lee Zeldin in what should have been a cakewalk for any Democrat. That nail-biter of a victory wasn't just a wake-up call; it was a five-alarm fire for the Democratic establishment. Zeldin's campaign helped flip several counties red and contributed to the Republican House majority. Now, with Trump's surprisingly strong showing in 2024, in which he lost the state by the smallest margin in recent history, the writing is on the wall.
Things haven’t exactly gotten better for the Democrats in New York either. Corrections officers have gone on strike over unsafe conditions and staffing shortages. The strikes met harsh resistance from Hochul, who deployed 3,500 National Guard troops and threatened penalties against corrections officers, including taking away their health insurance.
The latest Siena College poll paints a troubling picture for New York's accidental governor. She’s marginally underwater with a 46-48% approval rating. But here's the kicker: a whopping 56% of New Yorkers want "someone else" in 2026. That's the kind of number that keeps Democratic strategists up at night.
Democrats are losing faith in their governor. While she maintains support within her party at 67-29%, those numbers are pathetically low for a Democratic governor in a deep-blue state.
The issues crushing Hochul's popularity read like a conservative's greatest hits album. New Yorkers are fed up with affordability issues (52-41% disapproval), her mishandling of prison strikes (42-33% disapproval), and her bumbling response to NYC Mayor Adams' corruption case (44-40% disapproval). Her pet project, the widely despised congestion pricing scheme, faces 40-33% opposition statewide. Even in NYC, support barely scratches 42%.
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Hochul’s primary advantage appears to be her name recognition, which could be enough to carry her through the Democratic primary. In a hypothetical 2026 matchup, Hochul leads the pack with 46% support among Democrats, well ahead of Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado at 11% and Rep. Ritchie Torres at 10%.
The poll also reveals that more voters align with President Donald Trump on the issue of congestion pricing, with 40% supporting its elimination, compared to 33% who agree with Hochul’s stance of keeping it in place. Trump’s favorability rating stands at 39-57%, largely unchanged from last month, while his job approval has dropped slightly to 42-55%, down from 46-51% previously. On the issue of combating fentanyl, voters approve of Trump’s efforts by a 54-37% margin. There is also significant support for making English the official language of the U.S., with 57% in favor and 27% opposed.
Does this mean New York could go red in the next gubernatorial election? If Hochul wins the Democrat primary, it’ll probably be the best opportunity. New York's potential flip to red isn't just about Hochul's incompetence; it's about a broader conservative awakening. New Yorkers are finally connecting the dots between progressive policies and their declining quality of life. The exodus of taxpayers, rising crime rates, and suffocating regulations are all symptoms of decades of Democratic mismanagement.
With Trump's stronger-than-expected performance in 2024 and Zeldin's near-miss in 2022, the foundation is laid for a historic upset. The only remaining question is: Who will step up to deliver the decisive blow to New York's blue dynasty?
