In 2024, Donald Trump achieved a historic landslide victory, winning both the Electoral College and the national popular vote while sweeping every swing state. However, the more intriguing story might lie in the states Trump didn’t win, highlighting unexpected shifts in the political landscape that could have huge implications in future elections.
One such state is New Jersey. In November, the state shocked many when Kamala Harris won by a slim five-point margin—a startlingly narrow victory for a Democratic candidate in a state that hasn’t backed a Republican presidential candidate since George H.W. Bush in 1988. In 2020, Trump lost New Jersey by nearly 16 points. Yet a new poll suggests that Trump’s narrow defeat there wasn’t a fluke.
Last week, Emerson College released a poll on New Jersey’s gubernatorial elections, which included this fascinating nugget of information:
President Donald Trump has a 48% favorable rating among New Jersey voters, while 46% have an unfavorable view of Trump. Six percent are neutral. Governor Phil Murphy holds a 44% favorable rating, and 42% unfavorable rating. Twelve percent are neutral and 2% have not heard of Murphy.
You read that correctly. Donald Trump has a higher favorability rating in New Jersey than the state’s Democrat governor. That's quite significant, especially in the wake of the election where Trump only lost the state by five points. What does it mean? I think it means the same thing that Trump's strong performance in the presidential election told us. People are frustrated over crime, immigration, and high prices, and Democrats have made it clear they are not taking these concerns seriously. Americans frustrated by the status quo and are increasingly realizing that Democrats aren't interested in fixing these problems. Trump's appeal appears increasingly strong, suggesting discontent with the status quo is resonating widely and to his benefit. A successful second term could make New Jersey in play for the Republican Party in 2028.
Related: Can You Guess How Many Children Were Born to Illegals in the United States?
In fact, I think it’s absolutely possible with the tireless work of grassroots organizers like Scott Presler, whose organization Early Vote Action was pivotal in closing the GOP registration gap in Pennsylvania and delivering victory for Trump. After Trump won in 2024, Presler announced he is now focused on New Jersey in anticipation of the 2025 gubernatorial election.
The contributions of figures like Presler could be critical in changing the narrative within New Jersey, transforming it into a more competitive battleground state.
His assertive commitment to registering new Republican voters should fuel momentum in the upcoming election cycle. Republicans have won the governorship in New Jersey before, and if a Republican can win this year, it bodes well for New Jersey’s transformation into a swing state.
