Allan Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House” model has been a staple in political forecasting, accurately predicting elections since 1984. However, this year, he shattered his credibility by wrongly predicting a Kamala Harris victory. Since then, Lichtman has been scrambling to salvage his reputation, appearing in interviews and blaming his failed prediction on so-called disinformation from conservative media.
As I’ve said before, the real issue isn’t with his model — it’s with his personal biases. A more impartial application of his “Keys to the White House” model pointed to a Trump victory. If he had owned up to that and admitted that his assessment of his personal biases tainted his assessment, he’d probably come out looking better. A bit of self-awareness and accountability would go a long way.
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That’s not the path he’s chosen, and since he won't acknowledge the true reason his prediction went wrong, Lichtman seems intent on destroying the reputation he spent decades building.
That’s why Lichtman had a meltdown on “Piers Morgan Uncensored” when The Young Turks’ Cenk Uygur called him out for being a hack.
“Don’t blame the voters. I think, look, we can get into this discussion, but, one, I think you’re blaming the voters. I think it’s a terrible idea,” Uygur said. “And look, I debated Professor Lichtman before I told him his theories about the keys were absurd. I was right. He was wrong. I said he'd lose his keys—”
Lichtman went nuts.
“No, you were not right, and I was not wrong,’ Lichtman interjected. “And that’s a cheap shot, and I won’t stand for it.”
“Who won, brother?” Uygur asked as the conversation devolved into heated crosstalk.
“You’re so deluded,” Uygur said before he blasted Lichtman for not giving him a chance to speak.
“No, because you’re personally attacking me again,” Lichtman snapped back.
“You got it wrong,” Uygur pointed out. “You were preposterously and stupidly wrong. So, okay, all right. Can I just finish a g**d**n thought ever on this show?”
“Don’t call me stupid,” Lichtman said. “I admitted I was wrong. I don’t need you to call me stupid.”
Of course, Lichtman hasn’t exactly admitted to being wrong. He claims that disinformation tainted the election as well as racism and sexism.
“The keys are premised on the proposition that a rational, pragmatic electorate decides whether the White House party has governed well enough to get another four years,” Lichtman told The Guardian in an interview. “Just as this kind of hate and violence is new, there are precedent-shattering elements now to our political system, most notably disinformation."
"You're SO deluded."
— Piers Morgan Uncensored (@PiersUncensored) November 19, 2024
Cenk Uygur clashes with pollster Allan Lichtman over the downfall of the Democrats.
Allan: "Who taught you manners?!"
📺 https://t.co/YmVwKQEiTI@piersmorgan | @cenkuygur | @AllanLichtman pic.twitter.com/CmW4gsFZUt
Lichtman is watching his reputation get flushed down the toilet, and he's only making it worse. This isn't his first live on-air meltdown either. He had another one earlier this month.
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