Famed pollster Ann Selzer announced this week that she is retiring from her role at the Des Moines Register’s iconic Iowa Poll after a significant misfire in the 2024 election. Once renowned for its accuracy, the poll’s reputation took a major hit after it released results showing Kamala Harris leading by three points in Iowa.
The findings gave Democrats a last-minute surge of optimism, fueling hopes that Harris might achieve a landslide victory. While many in the media treated the poll as gospel because Selzer is (or was) the best in the business, many on the right — including PJ Media — dismissed the poll as bogus. It not only clashed with surveys from other pollsters showing Donald Trump comfortably ahead but also with Selzer’s previous polls, which had Trump leading by double digits.
“Literally the first comment I saw on Twitter after her Harris +3 poll was someone saying it was time for her to retire,” Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports’ head pollster, told me when I asked him about Selzer’s retirement. “The only question now is, did she just buy a lake house?”
Rasmussen Reports emerged as one of the most accurate pollsters of the 2024 election.
Still, it didn't stop Kamala's supporters from believing that she was going to win Iowa and then win the election in a landslide. In the end, Trump carried Iowa by thirteen points and swept every battleground state.
Kristin Roberts, chief content officer for Gannett Media, the Des Moines Register’s parent company, told CNN that the Iowa Poll will “evolve as we find new ways to accurately capture public sentiment and the pulse of Iowans on state and national issues.”
“Our mission is to provide trusted news and content to our readers and the public,” Roberts continued. “We did not deliver on that promise when we shared results of the last Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, which did not accurately capture the outcome of the presidential election.”
In an op-ed for the Des Moines Register, Selzer asserted that her decision to retire had been made long before the disastrous poll.
"Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities," she wrote.
I'm not entirely sure I believe that, but it sure is convenient timing.
"Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course. It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite," Selzer continued. "I am proud of the work I’ve done for the Register, for the Detroit Free Press, for the Indianapolis Star, for Bloomberg News and for other public and private organizations interested in elections. They were great clients and were happy with my work. "
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Trump, however, thinks this wasn’t a simple mistake. Responding to the news of Selzer’s retirement, he is now calling for an investigation.
“A totally Fake poll that caused great distrust and uncertainty at a very critical time,” he said in a post on Truth Social. “She knew exactly what she was doing. Thank you to the GREAT PEOPLE OF IOWA for giving me such a record-breaking vote, despite possible ELECTION FRAUD by Ann Selzer and the now discredited ‘newspaper’ for which she works. An investigation is fully called for!”
In a post-election interview with PJ Media, Mark Mitchell said that the Harris +3 poll was “communicated early to Democrat circles,” and they were “ecstatic and laughing and because they really needed hope, and they got a gold standard pollster handing them exactly the copium they needed.”
He also suggested that Selzer’s move was an attempt to help Democrats maintain morale, even if it compromised her credibility. “So what was funny is she destroyed her credibility to help stop Trump, and she was actually a damn good pollster.”
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