In a recent revelation that has caught the attention of the political betting world, a mysterious trader known as the “French Trump Whale” has made headlines by wagering an astonishing $40 million on Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 election. In an exclusive interview, Stephan Tompson, the founder of Visegrád 24, tracked down the trader, who identified himself as Theo, to uncover his motivations and insights behind this massive bet.
Theo stated unequivocally, “I’m not supporting Trump. I’m just observing that Trump has a 90% chance of winning this election and a 65% chance of winning the popular vote.” This assertion is rooted in his belief that the predictive betting markets significantly differ from traditional polls, which he feels often underestimate Trump’s electoral support.
He explained the mechanics of these predictive markets, stating, “One is calculating what are the intentions of the people to vote. The other are bets made by real people with real money about who they believe the winner will be.” This distinction is crucial, as it highlights how financial stakes can reveal what some believe are a more accurate gauge of potential election outcomes than public opinion polls, which, frankly, haven’t been particularly reliable in recent cycles.
Delving deeper into his reasoning, Theo reflected on the media’s treatment of Trump’s support, claiming that they are repeating the mistakes made in 2016 and 2020.
“In August, I started to realize that media outlets are making the same mistakes they made in 2016 and 2020: underestimating the Trump vote,” Theo said. “Why? Because again, it's underestimating the shy Trump vote effect.”
“I deep dive [sic] into the polls and I realized that most of the polls are definitely skewed to the advantage of Harris. I also read a lot about, what we call the Neighbourhood effect.”
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When Thompson asked Theo to show him the math behind his belief that the polls are skewed, Theo pointed to a recent New York Times survey that he described as a “clear outlier,” specifically citing the North Carolina results showing Kamala up two points as an obvious outlier. He reviewed the crosstabs of the poll, meticulously calculating the percentages and finding that the poll results were “off by 9.3%” to Kamala's advantage.
Theo’s analysis extends beyond North Carolina. He expressed confidence that similar trends could be found across other swing states, including Wisconsin and Michigan. “I tell you that Trump will outperform the polls, especially these polls by 4 to 5%,” he asserted.
He even encouraged others to conduct their own analyses to uncover what he believes are pervasive biases in polling data.
Interestingly, Theo distinguished himself from the stereotype of a gambler. “I am a trader because I’m based on rationals. I’m based on analytics,” he clarified, asserting that his actions are motivated by data rather than political allegiance. “That’s why I bet on both, and that’s why I think you will win both,” he concluded, reinforcing his analytical approach to predicting electoral outcomes.
"I tell you that Trump will outperform the polls, especially these polls by 4 to 5% minimum."
When asked about the possibility of a Trump loss, Theo was pragmatic. “If I’m wrong, I would accept that I was wrong in my analysis, but I really doubt about [sic] that.” We should take his confidence in Trump’s chances based on analysis of the data seriously. When you bet $40 million on an election, it doesn't matter how rich you are; that's a lot of money that wouldn't risk losing unless you were extremely confident.
THE NYT/SIENA POLL SKEWS IN FAVOUR OF KAMALA HARRIS
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) November 5, 2024
We asked the mysterious French trader what makes him so confident in a Trump win that he bet $40 million on it.
He showed us the math that proves pollsters play with data to mislead the electorate. pic.twitter.com/XXBzEA595e
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