When Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential election, there was a prevailing theory that Democrats knew that Kamala Harris couldn't win and that she was just a sacrificial lamb. There is certainly plenty of evidence to back this up.
Biden didn't endorse her in his infamous letter announcing his departure from the race, and key Democrats like Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama didn't immediately endorse her either. Instead, they called for an open process to select Biden's replacement. But winning the presidency may not have been the point of rallying behind her.
Democrats who seemed to be waiting in the wings for Biden to step aside didn’t even try to challenge Harris. Why not? If they believed she was really the Democrats best shot, they were essentially shelving any hopes of a presidential run for the next eight years, as Harris would be the natural choice for the 2028 nomination.
Plenty of Democrats were unconvinced that Kamala could win. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) indicated in an Instagram Live rant in July that Democrats weren't convinced that Harris could win. So why back her at all? That same month, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) told donors during a private meeting that he thought that if Biden remained as the party's nominee, "we may very, very well lose the Senate and lose our chance to take back the House.”
Rallying behind Harris may have been less about winning the presidency and more about trying to boost party enthusiasm to avoid a down-ballot disaster for Democrats. But if that’s Kamala's main job, it looks like she’s failing at it because Republican challengers in key Senate races appear to be gaining ground.
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As I previously reported, Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.) is losing momentum. Once ahead by as much as nine points, Casey now finds himself barely holding a slim two-point lead, according to recent Emerson College and Atlas Intel polls, with Trafalgar showing him up by just one point — well within the margin of error.
In Montana, Sen. Jon Tester, who was once comfortably ahead, is now trailing Republican Tim Sheehy by an average of 5.2 points in every poll since June. And though Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) has led in every RealClearPolitics poll, there is hope that Trump’s double-digit lead in the state could pull Republican challenger Bernie Moreno across the finish line.
Even more once-safe Democrats are looking vulnerable now. Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde’s chances against Democratic incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) received a significant boost after the Cook Political Report, a respected nonpartisan election tracker, moved the Wisconsin Senate race from “lean Democrat” to a “toss-up” on Tuesday.
“After 25 years in Washington, Tammy Baldwin has become the typical D.C. politician, voting in lock-step with the failed Biden agenda and hiding her Wall Street partner’s stock trades from her constituents,” Tate Mitchell, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said in a statement. “Wisconsinites are ready for change, and Eric Hovde has the momentum.”
Democrats were generally favored to win back the House even before Biden dropped out, but keeping the Senate in Democrat hands was a key objective in forcing him out of the race. For sure, Democrat enthusiasm appeared to boost incumbent Democrats at first, but now those races have tightened back up again.
