We're now about a month away from the election, and everyone is trying to forecast what will happen. The media is calling the race a toss-up, and technically, they're probably right. That said, is a toss-up really a toss-up? On Wednesday, there was a viral claim suggesting that Donald Trump, based on CNN’s latest poll, is heavily favored to win. Is there any truth to that?
"CNN's poll of polls gives Trump a nearly 70% chance of winning the election," tweeted Fox News Contributor Joe Concha on Thursday. "32 days to Election Day. Harris-Walz was given almost the full backing of the media. T-ball interviews. Blatantly biased debate moderators. It may not matter..."
The claim is based on a chart posted by Eric Daugherty, the assistant news director at Florida's Voice.
🚨 BREAKING: Donald Trump is the clear favorite to win the 2024 election under CNN's latest national poll update, with win odds of nearly 70%. pic.twitter.com/Ny2Y5D8ewP
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 3, 2024
While the claim is being community-noted on X, it is technically accurate.
The above claim cites the latest CNN poll, which found, according to the network when it first reported it, "Among likely voters nationwide, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS finds 48% support Harris and 47% Trump, a margin that suggests no clear leader in the race."
The latest poll finds Harris and Trump roughly even with independent likely voters – Harris at 45% to Trump at 41% - with a gender gap that is centered among independents. Independent women break 51% Harris to 36% Trump while independent men split 47% for Trump to 40% for Harris, with very little difference between men and women in either party.
The gender divide in the poll is also more concentrated among White voters (White men break 58% Trump to 35% Harris, while White women split 50% Trump to 47% Harris), with very little gender divide among Black or Latino voters. Harris is well ahead among likely voters younger than 30 (55% support her to 38% who favor Trump), and among Black (79% Harris to 16% Trump) and Latino (59% Harris to 40% Trump) likely voters.
It's worth noting here that Kamala Harris is running behind Joe Biden's margins among young, black, and Latino voters, and these demographic shifts alone bode well for Trump. But why does Daugherty's chart say that CNN's poll puts Trump at a 70% chance of victory? CNN certainly doesn't say that. Their report clearly suggests that they see the race as too close to call.
Not even Nate Silver's election forecast model has Trump's chances of victory at 70%.
The idea that Trump is highly favored to win the election despite being down a point in CNN's poll comes from Nate Silver's chart explaining the probability of winning the Electoral College based on the national popular vote, which he called the "Electoral College bias."
For our VIPs: Trump May Be Far Ahead, But That’s No Guarantee of Victory
The latest version of the chart does indeed put Trump's chances of an Electoral College victory at roughly 70% based on the results of the CNN poll.
In reality, this isn't a "claim," this is the data.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 4, 2024
Trump becomes the favorite if Harris wins the national popular vote by 2 or less. https://t.co/FGWVyHevEe pic.twitter.com/tzV3ltSX4Y
Now, on its face, there is much truth to this. Despite winning the national popular vote with "81 million votes," the race ultimately hinged on fewer than 50,000 votes across three battleground states. Mail-in voting is most likely what tipped the election to Joe Biden in 2020. So, although CNN didn’t outright say Trump has a 70% chance of winning, Nate Silver’s analysis of the “Electoral College bias” suggests CNN's polling does show Trump is favored to win the Electoral College—and, ultimately, the presidency.
Is this the most reliable way to predict an election? Not exactly, but we’ve seen the Electoral College play out like this before. In 2020, Joe Biden won the popular vote by 4.5 points, yet he only narrowly flipped the crucial states needed for victory. And in 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1 points but still lost. So, the idea that Kamala Harris would need to outperform Biden’s popular vote margin to have a shot at winning holds a lot of truth. Right now, however, she’s falling short.
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