Conventional wisdom right now says that Kamala Harris is favored to win the election. She has a marginal lead in the national average and betting markets; various forecasters — including now Nate Silver — say she's favored. With less than 50 days to go before the election, it's not a terrible place to be. For sure, Kamala fans are expressing a ton of confidence right now, but I don't think they're as confident as they claim to be.
Otherwise, they wouldn't be freaking out about Nebraska.
If you haven't heard the news, Nebraska Republicans are considering a major change to the state’s electoral process. They are considering changing the current system, which distributes Electoral College votes by congressional district along with the statewide winner, to the more conventional winner-take-all format. This would mean all of Nebraska’s electoral votes would go to the candidate who wins the statewide vote — which will be Donald Trump. In practice, this means that Trump would net one extra vote by winning the state.
You may know that Maine similarly awards electoral votes by congressional district, and the Democrat-leaning state could, in theory, even the score by changing its state back to a winner-take-all system, which would benefit Kamala Harris. The problem is that it can't.
"It takes 90 days for legislation to go into effect in Maine after it is enacted, and Thursday marked 89 days until the Electoral College is scheduled to meet on Dec. 17, meaning it’s already too late for the Maine Legislature to change to a winner-take-all system under normal rules," explains NBC News.
Related: Do Election Forecasters Think We're Stupid?
The report notes that while state law permits "emergency" legislation to take effect immediately, doing so requires a two-thirds supermajority in both legislative chambers. Although Democrats hold control of both chambers in the Maine Legislature, they fall far short of the supermajority needed in the House.
In other words, no dice. If Nebraska makes this move, Maine can't respond in time for the 2024 election.
And that's what has Kamala's allies over at The Bulwark declaring that she "may be screwed" if it happens.
"Should [Nebraska Republicans] succeed, it would likely deprive Harris of a critical Electoral College vote from the Omaha district, which would close off one of her easiest maps to victory," laments The Bulwark's Sam Stein. "With one electoral vote from Nebraska in her column, picking up just Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin while losing the rest of the swing states would be enough to get Harris to 270 electoral votes. Without that Omaha vote, that map would put the election in a 269-269 deadlock, leaving it to the House of Representatives to adjudicate."
This is why Democrats are panicking about Nebraska possibly going to a winner-take-all format for their Electoral College votes. pic.twitter.com/NN9AG1ag7b
— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) September 20, 2024
In this scenario, Trump is heavily favored to emerge victorious. However, I have little reason to believe that this election will end in an Electoral College tie. That said, if Democrats are genuinely worried about what's happening in Nebraska, they might not be as confident in Kamala's chances this November as they publicly project.
While I'm not particularly fond of election gamesmanship, I have no issue with Republicans asserting their influence, especially after Democrats made attempts to remove Trump from state ballots. Besides, this election won't hinge on a single electoral vote. If Nebraska successfully adopts a winner-take-all approach, Maine will likely follow suit in time for the next election, putting us back in a position similar to where we are today.
Perhaps the most important thing about this story is that Democrats might realize that if they try to tamper with elections, Republicans will push back.
