Here's What 2020's Most Accurate Pollster Says About the Current Election. Kamala Won't Like It.

As the 2024 election cycle intensifies, political analysts are scrutinizing every detail to forecast the potential outcome. In the latest edition of "Atlas Deep Dive," Andrei Roman, CEO of AtlasIntel, and Pedro Azevedo, the chief specialist for U.S. elections, provided insightful analysis on the current state of the race. 

AtlasIntel, in case you don’t know, was the most accurate pollster during the 2020 election. So its polling and insight are actually important. Its latest survey gave Trump a 2.9-point lead over Kamala Harris nationally — which would translate to a significant Electoral College victory.

So what do they say about the state of the race right now?

Roman asked Azevedo for his qualitative take, beyond the numbers, on the chances each candidate has. Azevedo's response was cautious.

"I would say my intuition was that we would see the polls at least narrow a little bit during this month with the enthusiasm for Kamala and how things have been going for her," he explained. Azevedo estimated a 60-40 chance for Kamala Harris, with the expectation that a positive debate performance could give her a boost. "If after this debate, which she did so well and which everyone agrees that she won... she can get some momentum going."

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However, Roman, whose analysis is deeply rooted in numerical data, presented a more conservative outlook. He stated, "Well, I'm very much oriented by the numbers we have,” he said. “And I believe in those numbers. And if I believe in those numbers and I think about how this plays out, you know, swing state by swing state — and that is something that we'll be releasing next week — I would give Trump 70% chance of winning and Kamala 30%."

He emphasized that Trump currently holds a built-in advantage that could be difficult for Harris to overcome, but not impossible.

“That means that, you know, Kamala still has a chance, but I wouldn't call this race that narrow at this point in time based on this built-in advantage that Trump has.”

Azevedo acknowledged the current polling dynamics and conceded, "If in, like, two, three weeks we do another poll and she's still stuck where she is right now, I would feel that I have to sort of recalibrate this prediction." 

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Azevedo believes that Harris has opportunities to gain ground, but it will require substantial shifts in momentum to alter the prevailing trend.

The consistent numerical advantage bolstered Roman’s confidence in Trump’s lead. "You have huge momentum... covering Kamala in a very positive light," he noted. Despite the favorable media coverage and endorsements, such as Taylor Swift’s support, Roman questioned whether Harris’s campaign could do enough to reverse Trump’s national advantage.

Roman's assessment of the race is a gut punch to Kamala Harris supporters who think she has this election in the bag. While many polls show her ahead, her lead is not strong enough to translate into an assured victory. Meanwhile, AtlasIntel's accuracy in 2020 bodes well for its methodology and likely success in accurately predicting the 2024 election. 

It's not a sure thing by any means, and there's no denying that things could change. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether the anticipated momentum will shift the race in her favor or solidify the current trends.