There are plenty in the Democratic Party who think they have this election in the bag. Some are absolutely ecstatic about the latest ABC/Ipsos poll, which shows Kamala with a six-point lead nationally. Does anyone actually believe that? Look, outliers aside, one thing is clear: Her bounce is actually fading, and this race will look very different next week.
Expert pollster Rich Baris recently sat with Benny Johnson for an interview, during which the two discussed the polls and the election, and it's clear that while Kamala got an initial boost, things are settling back to how things were before Joe Biden's disastrous debate with Donald Trump.
"You're saying that Kamala Harris—do not be shocked when Kamala Harris winds up a week from now after the debate at where Biden was... where you're looking at five, ten-point gaps in swing states," Johnson noted before asking Baris to explain.
Baris explained that Kamala Harris might perform better in national polls and possibly in the overall vote than Joe Biden would have, largely because some deep blue areas might rally around her more enthusiastically.
However, Baris believes this potential boost in voter enthusiasm won't translate to success in key battleground regions where Biden struggled, such as the Northern Midwest and the Sunbelt states.
Related: Top Pollster Predicts Who Will Lose the Debate
He pointed out that Harris's campaign initially believed their path to victory would involve securing the Sun Belt and winning Pennsylvania, but even their own polling indicates she's losing ground there. "But they even know in their own polling, she's down in Pennsylvania," he said.
Baris even challenged Harris to prove him wrong: "If I'm wrong, Kamala, you can release your poll right now, and you can put it out on Twitter and show everybody that you're up in your polling."
That likely won't be necessary.
We know that Kamala's internal polling isn't as optimistic as most public polls are. As we've previously reported, Chauncey McLean, president of the pro-Harris Super PAC Future Forward, recently cautioned Democrats about public polling, saying, “Our numbers are much less rosy than what you’re seeing in the public." So, Baris isn't making anything up here. This is well established at this point.
While pollster Frank Luntz thinks the debate next week—if it happens—will be incredibly consequential, Baris thinks it is unlikely to shift the overall election outcome significantly. He noted that there have been only two debates that have significantly altered the trajectory of an election: Ronald Reagan’s debate against Jimmy Carter and Joe Biden’s debate with Donald Trump back in June.
Baris doesn't have high expectations for Kamala's debate performance.
"If they taped almost an hour worth of footage, alright, and they're only gonna release 30-something minutes, and those 30-something minutes are awful—because they are—Democrats really felt like in order to stop what I'm saying from happening in a couple of weeks, she needed a knockout scene and interview. She didn't put it up."
"How bad is the rest of that interview if that's the section we got?" he asked. "Like, think about that for a second. How bad is it?"
However, he predicted that even if Harris performs well in the upcoming debate, it won’t be enough to overcome her broader electoral challenges.
Looking ahead, Baris predicted that Harris’s numbers will start to decline as the election nears, mirroring Biden’s trajectory in 2020. He noted that Trump is a “strong closer” who will likely capitalize on the waning support for Harris. Baris concluded by confidently predicting that by mid-September, Harris’s lead will evaporate.
WOW.
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) September 2, 2024
Expert Pollster Rich Barris reveals Kamala's sinking ship after latest polling shows her Biden-level collapse:
"They thought at the time Pennsylvania would be the easiest, but they even know in their own polling she's down in Pennsylvania." pic.twitter.com/KhRQvsX1js
In the end, the candidate at the top of the Democratic ticket may have changed, but the fundamentals haven't... and they have long favored Trump.
