As of Wednesday, Kamala Harris has a 1.7-point lead in the RealClearPolitics national average, and conservatives are actually happy about this. Why? For one thing, this represents her best polling from her honeymoon period and her DNC "bounce," which doesn't appear to have materialized after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. endorsed Donald Trump on Friday, the day after Kamala accepted her party's nomination for president. But why would conservatives be happy if she is up 1.7 points in the RCP average?
There are several reasons. First, her average lead will inevitably decline within a couple of weeks. The other factor is that Kamala is running far behind both Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton at this point in the 2020 and 2016 elections. At this point in 2020, Biden had a 6.9-point lead over Trump, and in 2016, Hillary had a six-point lead. After Hillary lost and Biden's victory hinged on less than 50,000 votes in three battleground states combined, that's a huge reason to be worried if you're a Democrat.
Many experts on the left were flabbergasted by the way Trump's position in the polls has improved each time left-wing prosecutors indicted him. Something tells me that they once again fail to understand Trump's base of support and likely aren't capturing it completely in the polls. So Trump's position in the polls today may be even better than public polls are showing.
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Let's just say, hypothetically speaking, that the pollsters have somehow managed to fine-tune their methodologies and are spot-on in their polling. Even then, Trump voters have reason to celebrate because based on Harris's average lead in the polls right now, Trump is still favored to win the presidency.
National polls often fail to capture the complexities of voter sentiment in individual states. Harris might have a slight edge overall, but that support is concentrated in the populous deep blue states like California or New York. This doesn’t help her in battleground states where the race is much tighter. In those critical states, polls show an even tighter race with Trump still slightly ahead. This means that the Electoral College system favors Trump.
How much advantage does this give him? Famed leftist pollster Nate Silver addressed this bias this week with a graph showing how various national popular vote margins translate into an Electoral College victory.
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According to Silver's modeling, with an average national lead of 1.7%, Kamala's chances of victory in the Electoral College are just 37.4% compared to Trump's 61.4%.
I’ve seen some libs ignorantly wonder why conservatives celebrate polls with Harris up 1-2 in the NPV. The below is why. Hope this helps (the electoral college has been a thing all this time) pic.twitter.com/B5RHkFaBA2
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) August 28, 2024
This is why Democrats will try to abolish the Electoral College if they ever get the chance. It's also why it's incredibly important for Trump and the GOP to win in November.
