Earlier this month, I spoke with Mark Mitchell, the head pollster at Rasmussen Reports, and we delved into the shifting dynamics of the 2024 presidential race, particularly in light of Kamala Harris’s ascension to the top of the ticket. I followed up with Mitchell over the weekend to discuss the latest polling developments — including the alleged “DNC bounce” for Harris, and the impact of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s endorsement of Donald Trump.
Flashback: Rasmussen Reports Talks 2024 Polling
First, I pointed out that according to FiveThirtyEight, Harris has received a bounce in polling. However, Mitchell was cautious about over-interpreting this. He noted that while the polls have tightened by about one or two points since the week before the Democratic National Convention, the trends that FiveThirtyEight report are "much more pronounced" than what Rasmussen is seeing. Mitchell urged skepticism towards FiveThirtyEight’s model, pointing out that “there is a lot about the model that doesn’t appear to be disclosed.” He also mentioned that Rasmussen was excluded from FiveThirtyEight’s aggregate, which he attributed to "ideological reasons and who we associate with."
When I asked about Rasmussen's daily trends and what they reveal about the current state of the race, Mitchell explained that while he hadn’t yet finished crunching the latest numbers, the most recent nightly results were all within a point of each other. He could observe this stability in the data up until the final night of the convention. He also hinted that the next few days would provide insights into how voters are reacting to RFK Jr.'s endorsement of Trump.
Another issue I wanted to discuss with him is the accusations from the right that polls have been oversampling Democrats in their surveys to boost Harris. Mitchell didn't hold back, expressing his frustration with what he perceives as a lack of transparency in polling. "People are holding data or not releasing polls to leave Harris-favorable polling alive in the aggregate," he said.
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He also suggested that there’s been a sudden shift in polling methodologies that seem to favor Harris, which he finds suspicious given that "our numbers weren’t that far off from others’ in the industry back in July when the press wanted Biden out." However, with Harris as the nominee, everyone seems to have "lurched left," and the media has followed suit with articles justifying this shift.
As someone who has been keeping a close watch on polls, one thing I’ve noticed since Kamala Harris became the nominee is that pollsters have been dragging their feet and not polling as often, or delaying the release of polls. When I asked Mitchell about this, he agreed.
“People are holding data or not releasing polls to leave Harris-favorable polling alive in the aggregate,” he said. “Why put a new poll out if you like the results you got last time?"
Our discussion also turned to Trump’s performance in the political betting markets during the DNC. Mitchell shared his intrigue with how these markets have behaved.
"I’ve been watching Polymarket with fascination," he said, adding that, as someone with experience in the financial industry, he finds the behavior of these markets unusual. He pointed out how Harris's lead in the betting markets increased with little polling to back it up, only for Trump to recapture a significant lead during the DNC. Then Harris reclaimed a lead on the final day. What also caught his attention was how Polymarket didn’t respond at all to RFK’s endorsement, despite its potential to significantly impact the race.
Finally, we discussed the impact of RFK Jr.'s endorsement of Trump. Mitchell hinted that this development is more complex than it appears on the surface. While his initial analysis suggested a "slight advantage for Trump – maybe half a point," he believes the larger implications will come from the "long-term optics and politics" of the two joining forces.
Maybe it was RFK.
— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@Mark_R_Mitchell) August 26, 2024
Maybe the glow wore off.
But Kamala's momentum seems to have been checked. pic.twitter.com/WXL74wsyEL
While it appears from Rasmussen's polling that the RFK Jr endorsement took the wind out of Kamala's bounce, the full impact of this endorsement may not be immediately apparent. It could shape the race in unexpected ways.
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