You can't pay for the endless glowing coverage that Kamala Harris has received since becoming the Democrat's presumptive presidential nominee. The way the press has refused to hold her accountable for her radical views or for running scared from the media is borderline criminal.
To top it off, on Thursday evening, she'll be anointed as the official nominee despite having received zero votes. Yet for some reason, despite the glowing coverage and DNC which has devoted hours and hours to anti-Trump rhetoric, Donald Trump has surged in the political betting markets.
On Aug. 19, before the Democratic National Convention started, Harris had a four-point Polymarket lead of 51% to Trump's 47%
Kamala is back in the lead as the Democratic National Convention kicks off. pic.twitter.com/VLyUyl10G8
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) August 19, 2024
By the end of the third night of the convention, Trump had a seven-point Polymarket lead, beating Harris 53% to 46%.
Trump’s lead in the odds just hit 7%. pic.twitter.com/HddkW33YKz
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) August 22, 2024
That's an 11-point shift.
Trump has also retaken the lead in the betting market averages.
This is a big deal.
— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@Mark_R_Mitchell) August 22, 2024
Kamala Harris is now losing in both RCP and Polymarket betting odds, despite the fact that most mainstream polls have her up big, and it's primetime DNC.
How could this be happening? https://t.co/RwgwTwD1eB
If you're wondering why this matters, consider this: Joe Biden's State of the Union address this year took place on March 7, but he didn't get a bounce from it until roughly three weeks later. Similarly, we all knew that Harris would experience a surge in the polls after Biden dropped out. Yet it took about two weeks for Kamala to top Trump in the RealClearPolitics average.
Political betting markets give us a real-time snapshot of public sentiment that polls just don't provide, which suggests that polls can often be a lagging indicator of public sentiment. It's not always perfect, as the political betting markets appeared to react to public polls before Kamala overtook Trump. That said, political betting markets involve actual money, so people are financially incentivized to make accurate predictions.
Trump's seven-point lead has shrunk since Wednesday evening, which is not all that surprising since Kamala Harris is set to take the stage Thursday, and that is likely to boost her odds in the market, even if temporarily. But what makes the political betting markets so interesting is that they can quickly react to breaking news and sudden shifts in the campaign before the polls can.
Related: CNN Contributor Drops Major Truth Bomb About the DNC's Messaging
On the same note, assuming that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. does, indeed, drop out of the race on Friday and endorses Trump (the betting markets put that at a 91% chance) you'll likely see Trump get yet another boost in the betting markets that could wipe out any gains Harris experiences Thursday evening. When will the polls reflect that? A couple of weeks later at best?
