It seems like every election cycle stirs up controversy over the legitimacy and accuracy of polls. Frankly, it's exhausting, but it seems that both sides can't help questioning the results of polls they don't like. But is there any truth to the idea that the polls showing Kamala Harris in the lead are skewed? Experts have weighed in on this subject.
As you may recall, in 2012, conservatives were convinced that polls were skewed in favor of Barack Obama — and they wound up with egg on their faces. However, in 2016, the polls were definitely off. National polls overstated Hillary Clinton's support, and state-by-state polls predicted a victory for Hillary Clinton in the Electoral College.
In 2020, the difference between the polls and reality was even worse. The final RealClearPolitics national average showed a 7.2-point lead for Joe Biden. He ultimately had a 4.5-point lead in the national popular vote, and fewer than 50,000 votes in three battleground states combined determined his victory in the Electoral College.
For whatever reason, pollsters haven't quite figured out how to accurately capture support for Donald Trump in their polling. Today, pollster John McLaughlin said that pollsters have indeed engaged in dubious polling methodology.
“So what they're doing is they're polling fewer Republicans. They're polling a disproportionate number of Biden 2020 voters in these states that were dead even,” McLaughlin said during an appearance on the “Just the News, No Noise” television show.
“They're saying the Biden 2020 voters should be four or five points higher. It's ridiculous. So what they're doing is they're trying to pump Harris up," he continued. "They're trying to suppress our vote. And this is, you know, there's smart people doing this, so I think it's intentional.”
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As of this writing, only polls from Fox News, Rasmussen Reports, and CNBC show Trump leading in a two-way race. Most other polls give Harris a slight edge, ranging from a one-to-four-point lead. Trump had been leading in the RealClearPolitics average until August 5, but he's been trailing since.
During an appearance on the "John Solomon Reports" podcast earlier this month, pollster Scott Rasmussen called Harris's polling boost a “sugar high.”
“It's very much a sugar high," he said. "Right now, when we look at all the issues, and we ask what voters know about Vice President Harris? Well, they know that she's very pro-choice on abortion. They don't really know anything else about her."
According to McLaughlin, some pollsters are trying to hide how they're skewing the polls by not disclosing the demographics of their sample. He cited a recent Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos survey that showed Kamala Harris leading Trump by four points. According to McLaughlin, the poll’s reliability is uncertain since demographic details of the sample weren’t disclosed, despite claims that it matched U.S. population benchmarks.
“When you saw the Washington Post Ipsos poll, there's no transparency,” McLaughlin said. “They say it's weighted according to the census. It's picked from their in-house panel, and it's all done online, and there's an obvious bias.”
He said there are similar trends in state polling, where surveys underestimate Republicans by 5%.
So, yeah, if he's right, then pollsters may be trying to suppress the Trump vote. The question is, will you let them get away with it? That said, it does us no good to convince ourselves that Trump is comfortably ahead when in reality, the election is still likely very close. We need to fight as though we are five to ten points behind, because that's what Democrats do every single day.
