With Joe Biden out of the race, lots of things have changed. Kamala Harris is now the presumptive nominee, and while polls show that Trump is still in the lead, that lead is a bit closer as Democrats are reportedly excited about the new ticket. But much of the narrower gap between Trump and Harris is due to Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. losing support.
In fact, according to Politico, Kennedy is in free fall.
"With Trump’s post-convention bounce, Democrats’ candidate switch and his own missteps, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s numbers are dropping like a rock," the outlet reported. "In the New York Times/Siena poll, Kennedy was at 5 percent, down from 8 percent right after the Biden-Trump debate. He’s at 4 percent in the Wall Street Journal poll, down from 7 percent in the previous poll."
According to Politico, despite getting on more ballots, Kennedy now faces a new hurdle: earning 15% in four qualifying polls between Aug. 1 and Sept. 3 to join the ABC News debate on Sept. 10, a target he's far from reaching. Kennedy and other third-party candidates have been targeting voters who dislike both Biden and Trump, but this group is shrinking due to improved perceptions of Trump and Harris.
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“One would think that any well-heeled, well-known independent or third party challenger should have been able to gain some momentum, and it almost seems that the Kennedy campaign went backwards during the post-debate coverage,” Christopher Thrasher, a ballot access attorney and political consultant who has advised numerous independent and third-party campaigns, told Politico.
A prior report indicates that Kennedy has been canceling campaign events and is reportedly considering dropping out and endorsing Donald Trump.
Publicly, he still insists that he's "in it to win it."
I'm in it to win it. I lead in popularity and independents are now the largest voting bloc. Momentum is shifting in my favor as I close in on ballot access in all 50 states. I look forward to challenging President Trump and the DNC nominee at the next debate. #AmericaStrong 🇺🇸 https://t.co/PwbzPNrqIZ
— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) July 26, 2024
But with dropping poll numbers, even he has to realize that he is fighting a losing battle. Last week, sources told ABC News that Trump and Kennedy have had several discussions recently, including an in-person meeting in Milwaukee during the Republican National Convention. During these talks, the two candidates reportedly discussed potential roles for Kennedy in a future Trump administration. According to sources familiar with the discussion, Trump could potentially offer Kennedy the opportunity to oversee the Health and Human Services Department in a second Trump administration.
Kennedy initially launched his presidential bid as a Democrat but switched to an independent run in October after accusing Democrats of rigging the primaries for Biden. His running mate, Nicole Shanahan, confirmed to ABC News that she was aware of Kennedy's recent discussions with Trump and supported them, emphasizing the need for unity and addressing corporate influence over agencies.
If Kennedy were to drop out and endorse Trump, it could significantly boost Trump's campaign. Still, it is arguably smart for Kennedy to continue to deny these reports of a potential alliance. If such talks did occur and are likely to happen, Kennedy likely wouldn't drop out before the Democratic National Convention. This alliance would certainly help Trump as he makes unity a cornerstone of his campaign after the assassination attempt earlier this month.
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