A cloud of uncertainty has cast a shadow over the 2024 presidential race. Despite his repeated insistence that he intends to stay in the race, the intensity from his own party puts Joe Biden’s candidate in real jeopardy. It’s hard to say what will happen, but one question we haven’t fully explored is whether Donald Trump prefers to face Biden or an alternative Democratic candidate.
If Biden dropped out, it would significantly reshape the dynamics of the election. The question is: who would benefit, Trump or the Democrats?
Biden's disastrous debate performance, to put it mildly, made it impossible for the left to deny his decline. At first, the media pounced, and many finally started to question his ability to carry on. Elected Democrats started to do the same, albeit anonymously, but a small and increasing number have since gone public. Donors have stopped writing checks and his biggest supporters in Hollywood have bailed on him. It certainly seems like there’s no viable plan for him to continue and have a chance of winning.
Let’s ignore, for the moment, the legal and political complications of replacing Biden at this stage of the campaign and just assess which scenario is better for Trump: Biden staying or going? There are compelling arguments on both sides.
On one hand, Biden's weaknesses are well-documented. His gaffes, health concerns, and perceived ineffectiveness offer Trump a plethora of attack lines. Additionally, the Biden administration's policies have been a disaster, giving Trump ample ammunition to criticize his record.
Even before the debate, Trump had a significant edge, as voters trusted him more on the key issues of the campaign. Also, the rematch between Trump and Biden pits both men’s records in the White House against each other—something polls showed gave Trump the advantage.
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A fresh Democratic face could potentially rejuvenate the party's base and attract undecided voters. Someone without the baggage of the Biden administration could present a more formidable challenge to Trump. This could be a risk that Trump would rather not take, but the polls suggest otherwise.
The most likely candidate to replace Biden is Kamala Harris, if for no other reason than she is the only candidate who can inherit Biden's campaign war chest. But she doesn't help the Democrats by being on the top of the ticket. For example, a new poll from Redfield & Wilton Strategies showed Trump up one point over Biden and up seven points over Harris.
Other polls have tested Trump against even more Democratic alternatives. The latest comes from Emerson College Polling, which shows that Biden, despite his recent debate performance, is the Democrat best positioned against Trump.
According to the latest @EmersonPolling survey, Joe Biden is still the strongest Democrat to face off against Donald Trump. pic.twitter.com/CMaJFa4GSn
— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) July 11, 2024
An Ipsos poll from earlier this month similarly showed that while Trump and Biden were equal in a head-to-head matchup, Trump performed better against Harris, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.), Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-Mich.), Gov. Andy Beshear (D-Ky.), and Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-Ill.). The only alternative who performed better than Trump was Michelle Obama — who has repeatedly said she wouldn't run.
In many ways, these polls suggest that the impact of Biden's physical and cognitive decline is already baked into the cake, and replacing him won't change that. Many of these Democrats have likely known all this time that something was wrong and did nothing about it. In other words, the Biden debacle may have turned off independent voters from voting Democrat this cycle and further enhanced Trump's position as the candidate who can be trusted.
As far as the polls are concerned, it doesn't matter, Trump remains the candidate best positioned to win the White House in November. That said, running against a new candidate would certainly require new strategies, and the polls today aren't necessarily indicative of reality because many of the alternatives are largely unknown to a national audience. It's kind of a wash either way.
