There's no doubt that things look really good for Donald Trump right now, as Joe Biden continues to deal with the fallout from his terrible debate performance. As of right now, he claims he's not leaving the race, and frankly, there's little reason to doubt that that is his intention.
So, what does that mean? It's hard to say because polls can change. But, right now, the polls have shifted heavily in Trump's favor. And there's one state in particular that will likely determine the outcome of this election. And how do things stand there?
Well, let's take a look.
The state I'm talking about, of course, is Pennsylvania. Based on my past analyses of battleground state polling, Biden has to win all of the Great Lakes battleground states to win. In 2016, Pennsylvania was called before Michigan or Wisconsin, and assuming the 2024 election plays out more like 2016 than 2020 in terms of how states are called, we'll likely know the winner of the election the moment Pennsylvania is called.
Related: Biden’s New Excuse for His Debate Performance Is His Most Outrageous Yet!
Biden arguably has a path to the presidency without Pennsylvania but an extremely unlikely one. For Biden to win without Pennsylvania, it would require him to win two of the three Sun Belt battleground states (Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia), all of which he is losing right now, and the remaining Great Lakes battlegrounds (Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan). Even if we assume Biden will take Minnesota, if Trump wins Pennsylvania, there's a good chance he'll win Michigan and/or Wisconsin as well, as Trump previously won all three of those states in 2016.
So trust me when I tell you that the key to the White House is in Pennsylvania, just as in previous cycles,it was in Ohio and Florida. Ohio and Florida have since become red states, and Pennsylvania is clearly trending more red and has become a bona fide swing state.
Trump's RCP average lead in Pennsylvania is now +4.5 points — his highest lead yet in this campaign. pic.twitter.com/gPnxB0XA6z
— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) July 6, 2024
Trump's lead in Pennsylvania is greater than his lead in the national average (+3.3 points), which makes it an incredibly strong position for him going forward. That doesn't mean that Pennsylvania is a lock, but it does mean, that, at present, Trump has a significant lead in the state that will likely tell us whether Trump will win the presidency on Election Night.
Related: Biden’s New Excuse for His Debate Performance Is His Most Outrageous Yet!
Back in March, the media got all excited when a Franklin & Marshall poll showed Biden up ten points in Pennsylvania. Of course, the poll made zero sense. Biden barely won Pennsylvania in 2020, and there was little reason to believe the state had swung nine points in his favor since 2020.
Trump did, however, have an RCP average lead of 2.8 points in Pennsylvania before the debate, and now a 4.5-point lead. Do I believe that the polls in Pennsylvania would shift 1.7 points after that debate?
You better believe I do.
Even if the post-debate slide for Joe Biden subsides, Trump was still leading by nearly three points in the state average before the debate. That might not seem like much, but Joe Biden was leading by more than six points at this point in the race back in 2020 and only won the state by a point.
Keep your eyes on Pennsylvania, everyone.
