It's true that I've been all about looking at the polls this year, and I feel generally confident about Donald Trump's chances in November.
As someone who tracks polls constantly, it's easy to take notice of those that don't make sense. Poll results tend to vary by pollster, and results can vary from poll to poll, but the latest Franklin & Marshall poll showing Biden up +10 in Pennsylvania set off alarm bells for me. For one thing, Joe Biden only won Pennsylvania by just over a point in 2020. Given the state of things, there's no reason to believe he's seen a surge in support in the state. But, perhaps more importantly, it falls way outside the pattern of recent polls in the state.
📊 PENNSYLVANIA GE: @FandMPoll
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) April 4, 2024
🟦 Biden 48% [+5]
🟥 Trump 38% [-4]
.
🟦 Biden 42% [=]
🟥 Trump 40% [+3]
🟨 RFK Jr 9% [+1]
🟩 Stein 3% [+1]
—
Senate
🟦 Casey 46% [+1]
🟥 McCormick 39% [+4]
[+/- change vs January]
—
538: #57 | 3/20-31 | 870 RV | ±4%https://t.co/2p85Q1XZvp pic.twitter.com/j3rpRmZTBE
There are other oddities in this poll. Biden's wide lead over Trump shrinks to a mere two points when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Jill Stein are included. RFK Jr. has typically pulled support from both Trump and Biden (but mostly from Biden), but the difference in these two matchups doesn't pass the smell test.
And then there's the Senate poll. Incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey leads Republican David McCormick, 46% to 39%. This is a far more believable result but it also raises more questions about the Biden-Trump matchup. Casey was first elected U.S. senator in 2006, and his father was a popular governor in the state for years.
While it's considered a potential flip for Republicans, Casey is going to be very difficult to beat. Can you tell me how it's possible that Casey, who is modestly popular in the state, isn't outperforming Joe Biden, who is underwater? It's just not likely.
Consider this: The current RealClearPolitics average in Pennsylvania, which includes the Franklin & Marshall poll, is Biden +0.1. Aside from that poll, the average includes three polls with Trump ahead by +2, +3, and +4, and two polls showing the state tied. When you account for the margin of error, Pennsylvania is obviously shaping up to be the swingiest of swing states.
Even in the most favorable scenarios for Joe Biden, you won't see him beating Trump by ten points. And today's political climate is by no means favorable to Joe Biden.
Prior to the inclusion of the Franklin & Marshall poll in the average, Trump had a small lead in the RealClearPolitics average. I can say rather confidently that at this point, regardless of the polls, Pennsylvania could go either way in November and may be decided more by how effective each party's "get out the vote" effort is.
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Frankly, I don't even think Franklin & Marshall College really believes Biden is up 10 points.
“I think this race is going to be really hard to predict for a long time because so many people don’t like either candidate and because a lot of people are looking for an alternative,” explained Berwood Yost, director of the poll and F&M College’s Center for Opinion Research.
I'm certainly not trying to pooh-pooh a poll just because it looks good for Biden. Frankly, I think Biden likely has the edge in the state at this point. And, what usually gets me skeptical of a poll in a state like Pennsylvania is not who it shows is ahead but the margin. Back in October, an Emerson poll had Trump up 10 points in Pennsylvania. I didn't believe that poll either.
