You've heard from the mainstream media and Democratic Party insiders. They're all expressing panic about the 2024 election after Biden's debate performance last week. But, are they mistaken? Does Biden actually represent their best chance to win in November despite the debate? Historian Allan Lichtman, who has a track record of accurately predicting nine out of the last ten presidential elections, has weighed in on the matter.
And his point of view is... interesting.
Lichtman, an American University professor, dismissed calls from the media and Democratic Party insiders for the 81-year-old Biden to step down following his disastrous debate performance against President Donald Trump last week.
“It’s a huge mistake. They're not doctors. They don't know whether Biden is physically capable of carrying out a second term or not,” Lichtman said in an interview with CNN. “This is all foolhardy nonsense.”
“All of these pundits and pollsters, and panelists that you see on all the cable channels and all the networks, have no track records in predicting elections. And if they come on and they claim they know how this debate is going to affect elections, they have no idea. It’s sports talk radio. It may be entertaining, but it has no scientific basis,” he claimed.
When asked by host Laura Coates what impact he felt the debate would have on the election, he said, without hesitation, "Zero."
"Debates are not predictive of outcomes. Hillary Clinton won all three debates, still lost. John Kerry won all of the debates, still lost. Barack Obama got trounced, 72%-20% in the poll, worse than Biden, and went on to win,” he said.
"That's why we rely on the thirteen keys, which tap into the structure of how elections really work," he continued, referring to his election prediction model. "And they show that Democrats' really only chance to win, contrary to everything I've heard, is with Biden running."
Lichtman's prediction model is called "The Keys to the White House," and while they may have a decent track record of predicting elections, Lichtman is also a leftist nutbag who hasn't exactly shown to be very objective in assessing some of the keys, such as the economy and whether or not there's been social unrest or scandal. Another issue is whether there has been a foreign policy or military failure. Earlier this year, he claimed there hadn't been one, despite the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. Lichtman argued that it was old news, even though polls showed Biden has never recovered from it politically. To that note, his handling of the Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas war has been widely panned.
Nevertheless, Lichtman has generally held the position that Joe Biden has been favored to win the election.
“Democrats’ really only chance to win, contrary to everything you’ve heard, is with Biden running.”
BREAKING: Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted every election, gives the strongest reasons why Democrats must stand with Biden. Lichtman also demolished Donald Trump for lying on every question in the debate. Retweet to make sure all Americans see.pic.twitter.com/OdMDckBCJD
— Biden’s Wins (@BidensWins) June 30, 2024
To an extent, Lichtman may be right that Biden is the Democrats' best chance, but that doesn't mean he's favored to win. One thing that Lichtman deliberately ignores because of his own political bias is that while there is a case to be made that debates don't matter, this debate was widely seen as a moment of truth for the Biden campaign. This was his moment to prove to the nation he has what it takes to be president. He failed. All the debate fact-checks in the world can't change the fact that the key topic of conversation in the wake of the debate is not what Biden said or even what Trump said. It is how Joe Biden performed. Biden knew how consequential the debate was, and literally took a week off to prepare for it. Historically speaking, more was riding on this debate than any in recent history.
And Biden failed.
